Wednesday, October 7, 2015

23 million people are being "eaten alive" by Federal Student Loan Program: Even the New York Times is Getting Worried

Today, the New York Times editorialized once again on the student loan crisis. The Times criticized the student-loan servicing companies for doing a poor job of counseling distressed student-loan debtors. As a result of poor guidance, the Times charged, many debtors don't know that they are eligible for income-based repayment plans that could lower their monthly loan payments.

Writing in response to a recent report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Times said this:
The Bureau's report--drawn from 30,000 public comments filed with the agency from May to July--suggests that some [student-loan] servicers are actually pushing struggling borrowers toward default by giving them misinformation, by making it difficult for them to refinance at lower interest rates and by withholding valuable information about affordable payment plans that are in the struggling borrower's best interest.
The Times is right to say that the government's loan processors are doing a crummy job of counseling student-loan debtors. Nevertheless, it fails to grasp the fact that income-based repayment plans--which the Obama administration and the Times both favor--are not a solution to the student-loan crisis.

These plans can last as long as 25 years, and most people who select this option will be making payments so small that their loan balances will actually go up because loan payments are not large enough to cover accruing interest. In fact, the Times editorial acknowledged this fact.

As the Times pointed out, 10 million people have either defaulted on their student loans or are in delinquency. But this figure understates the size of the crisis. In addition to the 10 million cited by the Times, 3.9 million are in income-based repayment plans, and another 9 million people are not paying down their loans because they obtained deferments or forbearances that excuse them from making loan payments.

In short, 23 million people are weighed down by student loans they can't pay back.

The Times said the Feds have come up with a plan "that they believe will prevent borrowers from being eaten alive."  But what is that plan? Basically, the federal government wants the loan servicers to make stronger pitches for long-term income-based repayment options.

This is a cowardly response to the student-loan crisis. The Times and the Feds think this enormous problem can be swept under the rug by enticing millions of people to make student-loan payments over 20 or 25 years instead of 10.

But that won't work. The Department of Education admitted a few months ago that more than half of the people who are enrolled in income-based repayment plans failed to file their annual income statements,which is a condition of participation.  People simply don't want to report their income to the Department of Education on an annual basis in return for the privilege of paying on their student loans for a majority of their working lives.

Department of Education insiders know that the federal student-loan program is heading toward disaster, but they are not trying to fix it. They are simply hoping to postpone the crisis until after the next presidential election.

Hey, is that Arne Duncan?

References

Editorial, "Why Student Debtors Go Unrescued." New York Times, October 7, 2015, A 26.




Tuesday, October 6, 2015

A Brookings Institution Blogger Asks a Very Good Question: "How well do default rates reflect student loan repayment?"

Robert Kelchen, posted a blog essay on the Brookings Institution's "Brown Center Chalkboard" that asks a very good question: "How well do default rates reflect student loan repayment?'

Kelchen pointed out that "just over half" of the $623 billion in Direct Loans made to students who have entered repayment are  current on their loan payments. Borrowers  with approximately $111 billion in student-loan debt are delinquent or in default.  And borrowers owing another $180 billion are in deferment or forbearance.  In other words, borrowers holding about 46 percent of outstanding Direct Loans aren't making payments.

People whose loans are  in deferment or forbearance aren't counted as defaulters.  But interest is accruing for most of these people, which means their loan balances are getting larger and more difficult to repay.

Kelchen makes several important points in his blog essay, but the most important point is this: "Cohort rates substantially underestimate the percent of students who have been unable to lower their loan balances." And here's the money quote:
Of the nearly 5,700 colleges with data on both [cohort default rates] and repayment rates, the median college had a 14.9 percent three-year [cohort default rate] while 40.8 percent of students did not repay any principal in the first three years after leaving college.  This means that one in four exiting students was not in default, yet did not make a dent in their loan balance in the first three years after entering repayment.
What does this mean?   First of all, a three-year default rate of nearly 15 percent is alarming in itself. But the fact that a quarter of non-defaulting student-loan borrowers did not reduce their loan balances by even a dollar three years after beginning the repayment phase is truly frightening. Those people are not counted as defaulters as long as they retain their  forbearance or deferment status,but their loan balances are getting bigger with each passing month. In short, a lot of people who are currently excused from making loan payments will never pay off their student loans.

When we reflect on the implications of Kelchen's essay along with an earlier Brookings Institution report showing that nearly half of people who attended for-profit colleges default within five years of beginning repayment, we get some sense of the magnitude of the student-loan crisis.

It's time for the Department of Education, Congress and the American public to face this fact: student-loan forbearance options, loan deferment options, and long-term income-based repayment plans are all ways to hide from reality, which is this: millions and millions of people are holding billions of dollars in student-loan debt, which they can't pay off.

And since the Bankruptcy Code makes loan forgiveness so onerous, millions of suffering people will be burdened with this debt for the rest of their lives.

Let's face it, 21st century America is not much different from 18th century England.  Our country doesn't put debtors in prison or deport them to Australia; it just lets them dangle on the outskirts of the American economy until the day they die.

Image result for unemployed


References

Robert Kelchen. How well do default rates reflect student loan repayment? Brookings Institution, The Brown Center Chalkboard, September 30, 2015. Accessible at: http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/brown-center-chalkboard/posts/2015/09/30-default-rates-student-loan-kelchen


Friday, October 2, 2015

Goodbye, Arne Duncan. We Hardly Knew Ye. The Secretary of Education Is Leaving Higher Education in a Mess

Arne Duncan is stepping down as Secretary of Education in December. Like all good politicians, Arne knows when it's time to slip out the door and look for a new gig.

Duncan is a photogenic guy and he says everything the progressive community wants to hear. But he did not have the moral courage to clean up the federal student loan program, and he is leaving American higher education in a mess. Duncan didn't do anything substantive to relieve the suffering of millions of people who have  been ripped off by the for-profit college sector. And he didn't do enough to rein in colleges that have high student-loan default rates and low graduation rates.

So where does the nation stand regarding federal student loans? First of all, Americans are carrying at least $1.3 trillion in outstanding student-loan debt (including private student loans, which is perhaps 10 percent of the total).

At least 7 million people are in default, and another 3.9 million are in long-term repayment plans that can stretch payments out for as long as 25 years. A great many of people in these plans will never pay off the principal on their loans.

Of course, the epicenter of the disaster is the for-profit college sector. According to a report released recently by the Brookings Institution, almost half of the people who borrowed money to attend for-profit colleges default within five years of beginning repayment.

And as I have said before, the true magnitude of this train wreck has been hidden from the public because millions of former students have received economic-hardship deferments that relieve them from making loan payments without being counted as a defaulter. The public really has no idea what the true cost of the federal-loan fiasco is.

Moreover, in spite of the fact that the entire higher education industry is heavily dependent on federal student-aid money, a lot of colleges are struggling. Moody's estimates that the number of colleges that are closing will triple by 2017.  True--Moody's estimate translates into only 15 colleges closing in that year, a small percentage of the more than 2000 colleges; but Moody's estimate is probably over-optimistic. The whole private sector is slashing tuition to attract students, so that the actual price of tuition is only about half the sticker price that colleges are advertising.

The higher education industry and its sycophants continually assure the public that all is well. People who graduate from college make more than high-school graduates, we are repeatedly told. We also hear that college costs haven't really gone up that much when inflation is taken into account and we calculate how much colleges are discounting their tuition prices. And we are also told that most of the defaulters owe small amounts of money, so rising college tuition isn't the heart of the problem.

All these excuses carry a certain amount of truth, but the fact remains that millions of people have had their credit ruined, their career hopes dashed, and their dreams of financial security destroyed by borrowing money to attend college that they are unable to pay back.

These millions have only one real route toward a second chance in life--discharge of their loans in bankruptcy. But the Department of Education opposes almost all efforts to discharge student loans in the bankruptcy courts other than people who have catastrophic health problems. In fact, DOE--Arne Duncan's DOE--opposed bankruptcy relief for a quadriplegic student-loan debtor who held a job but was unable to provide for himself and pay the full-time caregiver that he needed in order to survive.  And DOE had unleashed its lackey, Educational Credit Management Corporation, to hound debtors in the bankruptcy court. ECMC is as ruthless  as a character from a Dickens novel, but Duncan did nothing to bring this outfit under control.

So goodbye, Arne Duncan; and good riddance. I'm sure he will toddle off to a cushy university job where he will be working for one of the elite and over-priced institutions that benefited from the shameful federal student-loan program.

But Arne is still young enough to be forced to appear at a congressional hearing ten years from now, when irate Congresspeople will be asking questions about the student-loan bubble that ultimately burst. I can envision him flanked by high-priced lawyers; and I can hear the cameras clicking while he reads his prepared statement to cranky legislators glaring at him over their bifocals.  I'm sure he will be just as glib on that day as he is today, and I'll bet he'll be wearing a nice suit.

Obama administration resignations and firings



References

Adam Looney & Constantine Yannelis, A crisis in student loans? How changes in the characteristics of borrowers and in the institutions they attended contributed to rising default rates. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution (2015). Accessible at: http://www.brookings.edu/about/projects/bpea/papers/2015/looney-yannelis-student-loan-defaults

Kellie Woodhouse, Closures to Triple. Inside Higher Education, September 25, 2015

Kellie Woodhouse. Discounting Grows Again. Inside Higher Education, August 25, 2015.

  

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

NY Times Urges "Speedy Help for Victims of College Fraud," but the Times Does Not Go Nearly Far Enough

Let's give the New York Times credit: it is on the right side of the argument regarding the federal student loan program. The Times editorializes repeatedly about the plight of people who cannot pay back their college loans. The newspaper has published several fine news articles about individuals who are overwhelmed by student-loan debt. And again and again, the Times editorial writers demand action by the federal government to bring relief to desperate student-loan borrowers.

Unfortunately, the Times does not grasp this simple fact: True relief for student-loan debtors will require radical action, far more radical than the Times is willing to contemplate.

Last Sunday, a Times editorial addressed the issue of fraud in the for-profit college sector. As the Times pointed out, "The federal government's decades-long failure to curb predatory behavior in the for-profit college industry has left untold numbers of Americans with crushing debt while providing useless degrees--or no degrees at all--in return."

The Times then went on to praise the Obama administration for creating new oversight rules for the  for-profit college industry. And the Times expressed approval of the Department of Education's decision to forgive the student-loan indebtedness of some individuals who attended Corinthian Colleges (about 3,000 people so far).

But, as the Times pointed out, DOE has yet to grant relief  to any of the 4,000 people who claim they were defrauded by Corinthian and have asked to have their student-loans forgiven.

The Times expressed the fear that DOE's "legendary bureaucracy will drag its feet and make it difficult for deserving plaintiffs to get relief." And the Times ended its rather tepid editorial by stating vaguely that "the department needs to do a much better job of reaching out to people who have potential [fraud] claims."

The Times editorial is on the right track; obviously DOE needs to speed up the process of reviewing fraud claims by students who attended for-profit colleges. But I don't think the Times recognizes the enormity of the student-loan problem in the for-profit college sector.

A recent study by the Brookings Institution reported that there are almost 1.2 million people who attended the University of Phoenix who have more than $35 billion in outstanding student loans.  According to the Brookings study, 45 percent of a recent cohort of former University of Phoenix students defaulted on their loans within five years.

More alarmingly, for the for-profit sector as a whole, nearly three quarters of students who attended for-profit schools  (74 percent) owed more than they originally borrowed two years after beginning repayment (for the 2009 cohort).  And nearly half the students who attended for-profit schools (47 percent) defaulted within five years of beginning repayment.

And Brookings default data did not take into account the fact that many former students have obtained economic-hardship deferments and are not making their student-loan payments. Those people are not counted as defaulters even though they are not paying down their loans.

For-profit colleges are encouraging their former students to  sign up for economic-hardship deferments as a strategy for keeping their institutional default rates down. Tragically, most of the people who obtain economic-hardship deferments receive only phantom relief because the interest continues to accrue on their unpaid debt. When those economic-hardship deferments come to an end, the people who held them will find that the principal of their loans went up during the deferment period.

IN SHORT, IT IS INDISPUTABLE THAT HALF OF THE PEOPLE WHO TOOK OUT STUDENT LOANS TO ATTEND FOR-PROFIT COLLEGES WILL DEFAULT AT SOME POINT IN THE LOAN REPAYMENT PERIOD. In other words, about half of the federal student-aid money flowing into for-profit colleges will never  be paid back.

If the Times grasped the magnitude of the student-loan crisis in the for-profit college sector it would surely recommend more aggressive action by the Feds.  What is needed is not a more streamlined fraud review process (as the Times recommended), but something close to blanket amnesty for at least half of the people who borrowed money to attend for-profit colleges.

Put another way, DOE needs to craft a secular version of Pope Francis's "Year of Mercy," whereby millions of people who attended for-profit colleges can have their loans forgiven with little or no red tape.

Obviously some case-by-case review needs to occur to make sure student loans aren't forgiven for students who got good value from attending for-profit colleges and can afford to pay back their loans. But--based on the default rates--a majority of the people who attended for-profit colleges should have their loans forgiven.

What is the best process for sorting through this mess? Bankruptcy. Student-loan defaulters who attended for-profit institutions should have their loans forgiven by bankruptcy courts without the necessity of adversary hearings. If a bankruptcy court concludes that a student-loan debtor is insolvent, that person's loans should be forgiven unless the government can show fraud or bad faith.

But the burden should be on the government to show that an insolvent student-loan debtor who attended a for-profit college is not entitled to bankruptcy relief--not on the debtor.

Obviously, I have painted an ugly picture: massive student-loan forgiveness and default on billions and billions of dollars in student-loan debt. But most of the defaulters who attended for-profit colleges will never pay their loans back,  whether or not their loans are forgiven.

It is time to wipe the slate clean. The for-profit college industry should be shut down and the people who were injured by it deserve a fresh start.  We can take action now or we can take action later. But eventually, the federal government will have to face facts: the for-profit colleges are a rogue industry and have ruined the economic prospects of millions of people.

References

Kelly Field, "U.S. Has Forgiven Loans of More Than 3,000 Ex-Corinthian Students, Chronicle of Higher Education, September 3, 2015. Accessible at: http://chronicle.com/article/US-Has-Forgiven-Loans-of/232855/?cid=pm&utm_source=pm&utm_medium=en

Adam Looney & Constantine Yannelis, A crisis in student loans? How changes in the characteristics of borrowers and in the institutions they attended contributed to rising default rates. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution (2015). Accessible at: http://www.brookings.edu/about/projects/bpea/papers/2015/looney-yannelis-student-loan-defaults

Tamar Lewin, "Government to Forgive Student Loans at Corinthian Colleges," New York Times, June 8, 2015. Accessible at: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/09/education/us-to-forgive-federal-loans-of-corinthian-college-students.html?_r=0

Speedy Help for Victims of College Fraud. New York Times, September 27, 2015, Times Review Section, p. 10.



Monday, September 21, 2015

Student Loan Crisis? What Student Loan Crisis? NAFSA Attendees Vote in New Orleans and Conclude That Student Loan Program Is Not In Crisis

The National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators (NASFA) held its annual conference in New Orleans last July, and members discussed the federal student loan program. According to Inside Higher Education, NAFSA members listened to a panel of experts speak on the topic and then cast their ballots. "A majority of attendees voted to say that student loan debt, while perhaps problematic, was not of crisis proportion" (Stratford, 2015).

And of course for the NAFSA members, the student loan program is not in crisis. After all, they all have jobs, the colleges are getting their tuition money, and the federal government shows no inclination toward shutting off the spigot of student-loan money.  Someday the party will come to an end, but the NAFSA people are hoping the federal student-loan program won't collapse until after they retire.


deluge meaning


References

Michael Stratford, Student debt protesters crash annual gathering of college financial aid officers. Inside Higher Education, July 21, 2015.



Private Colleges Behave Like Car Salesmen and They Deserve the Same Level of Respect

When I was young, car buying was a very stressful experience. In the old days, car buyers were always at a disadvantage. They didn't actually know the fair price of 1962 Ford Fairlane, and they didn't know how much other people were paying for them. Thus car buying involved tense negotiations, urgent consultations between car salespeople and their supervisors, and sweaty car buyers sitting in showrooms wondering if they were about to pay too much.

And sure enough, right after you drove your shining new Plymouth Fury home and parked it proudly in the driveway, your neighbor came over to tell you that his brother-in-law got the same model for a hundred bucks less and the dealer threw in whitewall tires for free.

How much is this beauty really worth?
Today, car buyers have a lot more information about car prices, thanks to websites like Edmunds.com. But families are much in the same position as car buyers in the 1960s when they shop for a college. They really don't know what the fair price of a college education is, and they don't know what other families are paying. And colleges, just like 1960s car dealers, do all they can to obscure the fair price of a college education.

For example, Utica College in central New York and Rosemont College in Pennsylvania recently slashed their tuition prices drastically. Utica cut its tution from $35,466 to $20,000--a 42 percent price reduction. Rosemont dropped its tuition price from $46,000 ($46,000!) to $30,000--a discount of more than 30 percent.

Wow! Prices Slashed! Everything Must Go! What a lucky break for college students and their families. Just like the end-of-the-year sale at the Chevy dealer.

But wait. According to Inside Higher Education, very few Utica and Rosemont students were actually paying the full cost of tuition. At Utica, only 271 out of 2,300 students were paying the sticker price. And at Rosemont, only 9 out of 1,100 students were paying full tuition--less than 1 percent!

Rosemont and Utica, like most American colleges and universities, are engaging in differential pricing. They set a very high sticker price, hoping a few suckers will pay it; and then they offer steep discounts to the students they really want to attract--minorities, students with high SAT scores, athletes, legacies, etc. In fact, nationwide, the average tuition price at private schools is about half of the posted tuition.

Of course, all businesses adjust their prices somewhat to attract buyers at various income levels. That's the way business has been done since the beginning of time.

But American colleges have taken differential pricing so far that they've tarnished their integrity. How can a college honestly say that its tuition price is $46,000 when less than one percent of its students actually pays that price?

The hocus pocus about college tuition prices is part of the general confusion about college costs. The FAFSA form for financial aid is unintelligible, tuition varies from student to student, and the student-loan process is so complicated that many students don't know how much money they borrowed, how much they still owe, or whether their loan is a federal loan or the loan from a private lender.

But that's the way the colleges like it. Keep 'em confused. And if a customer asks too many difficult questions, throw in a set of whitewall tires to seal the deal.



My brother-in-law told me you'd give me a really good deal . . . .
References

Big price cuts, small savings at two private colleges. Inside Higher Education, September 17, 2015. Accessible at: https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2015/09/17/big-price-cuts-small-savings-2-private-colleges

The deluge is upon us: University of Phoenix students owe the taxpayers $35 billion; and 45 percent default within five years

Earlier this month, the Brookings Institution published a report on student-loan default rates; and some of its findings are truly shocking.  The report ranked institutions based on their students' total accumulated outstanding loans. University of Phoenix, a for-profit college company, ranked number 1; almost 1.2 million University of Phoenix students have racked up more than $35 billion in outstanding student-loan obligations.

And ponder this: 45 percent of the students in the University of Phoenix's 2009 cohort defaulted on their student loans within five years  
(Looney & Yannelis, 2015, table 5).

Image result for "university of phoenix" images

Brookings' researchers also reported that about three quarters of students (74 percent) who attended for-profit schools owed more than they originally borrowed two years after beginning repayment (for the 2009 cohort).  And nearly half of students who attended for-profit schools (47 percent) defaulted within five years of beginning repayment.

These are astonishing figures. And when we consider that a lot of former students who attended for-profit schools are enrolled in economic-hardship deferment programs and are not making loan payments, this sobering fact seems indisputable: more than half of the people who borrow money to attend for-profit colleges eventually default on their loans.

The Brookings Institution argues that the nation's high student-loan default rate can mostly be attributed to students who are "non-traditional borrowers," which it defines as students who attended for-profit colleges or two-year schools. Among all students who began repayment on their loans in 2011 and defaulted by 2013, 70 percent were nontraditional borrowers.

Loaning money for students to attend for-profit schools is irresponsible.

Based on these numbers, even a child can conclude that the federal government should not be loaning money to students who enroll in for-profit programs because taxpayers are going to get less than half of it back.  And--what is far worse--a lot of minority students and students from disadvantaged backgrounds will have student-loan debt hanging around their necks for the rest of their lives.  For these students, attending a for-profit school did not improve their lives; attending a for-profit school made their lives worse. 

Arne Duncan's Department of Education knows that the for-profit college sector is out of control, and it is made some efforts to provide student-loan debtors a little relief. For example, DOE granted loan forgiveness to about 3,000 students who attended one of Corinthian Colleges' campuses after Corinthian went bankrupt earlier this year. But there are more than 300,000 former Corinthian students.

Reasonable bankruptcy relief is the only humane remedy for non-profit students who default on their loans.

I do not think Congress or the Department of Education will ever shut off the federal-loan spigot to the for-profit colleges. This industry has protected itself with lobbyists, attorneys, and strategic campaign contributions.  Year after year, misguided students will continue to enroll at for-profit schools, and at least half will eventually default.

But  in the name of common decency, can't we at least give student-loan defaulters, who are suffering by the millions, some effective relief?  Do we have to make it so difficult for student-loan defaulters to file for bankruptcy and get a fresh start? Do we really want to force them into 25-year repayment plans, basically turning them into economic serfs for the balance of their working lives?

References

Adam Looney & Constantine Yannelis, A crisis in student loans? How changes in the characteristics of borrowers and in the institutions they attended contributed to rising default rates. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution (2015). Accessible at: http://www.brookings.edu/about/projects/bpea/papers/2015/looney-yannelis-student-loan-defaults