Department of Education inflated student-loan repayment rates for nearly every school and college in the United States! Playing for Time

The Wall Street Journal published a story a few days ago that is truly shocking.  Based on WSJ's analysis, the Department of Education has inflated student-loan repayment rates for 99.8% of all colleges, universities, and trade schools in the United States.

Earlier this month, DOE acknowledged that a "coding error" had caused the Department to mistakenly under report the student-loan default rates at many schools and colleges. But the magnitude of the error wasn't generally known until the Journal published its own analysis.

According to WSJ, at least half the students who attended more than a thousand colleges and trade schools had either defaulted on their student loans within 7 years of beginning repayment or failed to pay down even one dollar of their student loan debt.

This news is shocking, but not surprising. DOE has been misleading the public for years about  student-loan default rates.  Last autumn, for example, DOE reported a 3-year default rate of about 10 percent, a slight decrease from the previous year. But that figure did not take into account the people who had obtained forbearances or deferments and weren't making payments.  The five-year default rate for a  recent cohort of  student debtors is more than double DOE's three-year rate: 28 percent.


And last September, DOE mislead the public again. The Department  identified 477 schools where more than half the students had defaulted or failed to pay down their loan balances 7 years into repayment. But we now know the figure is more than double that number: 1029.

The implications of this new data are staggering. Obviously, the federal student-loan program is a train wreck. Millions of people have student loans they will never pay back. Eight million have defaulted and millions more are making payments so low that their loan balances are growing due to accruing interest.

Several large for-profit colleges have closed under allegations of fraud.  Corinthian Colleges and ITT together have a half million former students. DeVry, which just reached a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission, has a total of more than a quarter of a million students who took out federal loans to finance their studies. Accumulated debt for DeVry students alone is more than $8 billion.

Like the inmate musicians of Auschwitz, DOE's response to this calamity has been to play for time. It has encouraged millions of people to sign up for income-drive repayment plans (IDRs) under terms such that IDR participants will never pay off their loans.  And DOE has set up a cumbersome procedure whereby students who believe they were defrauded by a college can apply to have their student loans forgiven.

But there is only one way out of this nightmare: bankruptcy relief. Ultimately Congress will have to repeal the "undue hardship" provision in the Bankruptcy Code, which has made it virtually impossible for overburdened student debtors to discharge their loans in bankruptcy.

Until that happens, President Trump's Department of Education should modify its harsh stance toward bankrupt student loan debtors. DOE must stop insisting that every bankrupt student borrower should be pushed into an IDR that stretches loan payment periods out for 20 or 25 years.

Student loan debtors who are honest and broke should be able to discharge their student loans in the bankruptcy courts. Within a couple of years that simple truth will be apparent to everyone. Why not start now to relieve the suffering of millions of Americans who got in over their heads with student loans and can't pay them back?

And let's not sell the Trump administration short. Liberals have assumed that Donald Trump will protect the for-profit colleges because of his history with Trump University. But I am not so sure. President Trump knows how to read a financial statement and he understands the value of bankruptcy. He might just do the right thing and turn this calamity over to the federal bankruptcy courts. 

Playing for Time

References

Andrea Fuller. Student Debt Payback Far Worse Than Believed. Wall Street Journal, January 18, 2017.

DeVry University settles deceptive advertising claims with FTC for $100 million: Chicken Feed

About a year ago, the Federal Trade Commission filed a lawsuit against DeVry University, alleging that DeVry had engaged in deceptive advertising. Specifically, the FTC charged DeVry with making false claims about the employment prospects for DeVry graduates.

This month, DeVry settled the FTC lawsuit for $100 million, which may sound like a lot of money. But let's look at how that money will be distributed.

First, as reported by the Personal Finance Syndication Network, half the money represents loans DeVry made to its students that it will forgive.

That's right--in addition to sucking up Pell Grant money and federal student loan funds, DeVry loaned its students a lot of money--about $30 million.  DeVry has agreed to write off these loans. And DeVry students owe DeVry another $20.5 million for tuition, books and lab fees that DeVry will cancel.

In another words, fully half of the FTC settlement won't cost DeVry anything; it just forgives $50 million it loaned to its students.

The other half of the settlement--$49.4 million--is money DeVry has agreed to distribute to qualifying students who were injured by DeVry's deceptive advertisements.  Of course the  DeVry students who receive that money will be grateful, but $50 million is a drop in the bucket compared to DeVry students'  total student-loan debt. It's chicken feed.

According to a Brookings Institution report released in 2015, DeVry students have taken out more than $8 billion in federal loans over the years to attend DeVry University.  That's billion with a B.

How many students went into debt for the privilege of attending this dodgy institution? Well over a quarter of a million (274,788)!

Of course not all of those quarter of million DeVry students were injured by DeVry's allegedly deceptive advertising. And not all the $8 billion that students borrowed attend DeVry was wasted. I feel sure that at least some of students benefited from their time at DeVry and even got good jobs when they graduated.

But a lot of DeVry students were undoubtedly gypped.  Let's estimate conservatively that only $1 billion of the $8 billion borrowed can be linked to deceptive advertising or shoddy instruction. DeVry's settlement of $50 million represents just 5 percent of that loss.

If I could settle all my debt for 5 cents on the dollar, I would certainly do it.

So, as I said, DeVry's $100 million settlement with the FTC is chicken feed.  And DeVry slipped out of the FTC's lawsuit without admitting any liability.

References

DeVry University Students to Get Help With Student Loan Debt. Personal Finance Syndication Network, PFSn.com.

DeVry settles claims of deceptive advertising for $100 million. Personal Finance Syndication Network. PFYSyn.com

FTC Brings Enforcement Action Against DeVry University. Federal Trade Commission press release. January 27, 2016.

Adam Looney & Constantine Yannelis, A crisis in student loans? How changes in the characteristics of borrowers and in the institutions they attended contributed to rising default rates. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution (2015).

Inside Higher Ed asked Higher Education Insiders to Pose Questions to Betsy Devos: Madeleine Kunin and Wick Sloan Win Stupid Question Award

Betsy DeVos, Donald Trump's choice for Secretary of Education, faces questions from a Senate Committee this week. Inside Higher Ed contacted several higher education "experts" and asked them to pose their own questions to Ms. DeVos.

Most of the questions were what you would expect. Several people asked DeVos hypothetical questions designed to find out if the financial status quo for higher education for higher education will change under the Trump administration.

Some of the questions, however, were down right stupid. In fact, I give the Stupid Question Award jointly to Madeleine Kunin, former governor of Vermont and deputy secretary of education under President Clinton, and Wick Sloane, an instructor at Bunker Hill Community College.

Here is Ms. Kunin's question:

"Do you support public education and the mission of the department?"

Madeleine Kunin

 I assume Kunin wants a yes or no answer.  So what do think DeVos will say--No, I don't support public education?

Governor Kunin's question was inane, but Wick Sloane's question was just as wacky.  Here's Sloan's question.

"How quickly will you put in place a federal free and reduced-price lunch program for eligible low-income college students?"

Oh yes, and Sloane also suggested the federal government should provide free bus fare and subway passes to low-income college students. Of course that would be in addition to the $150 billion the federal government doles out every year in Pell Grants, student loans, and work-study money.

Interestingly, none of the insiders asked DeVos whether she supports reasonable access to bankruptcy for student borrowers who are overwhelmed by their college-loan debt.

None asked whether the government should stop offsetting Social Security checks to elderly student-loan defaulters.

None asked whether DOE should ban for-profit colleges from putting arbitration clauses in their enrollment documents--clauses that prevent defrauded students from filing lawsuits against the colleges that bilked them.

None asked whether DOE would streamline the loan forgiveness process for students who attended for-profit colleges found guilty of defrauding their students

No, the tone of most questions from higher education insiders across the spectrum of interests was simply this: "What's in it for us?"

References

Andrew Kleighbaum. Experts offer questions they hope to see asked of Trump's education secretary pick. Inside Higher Education, January 17, 2017.

Obama's Department of Education grants automatic loan relief for all students who attended the American Career Institute: A puny effort--too little, too late

Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Education granted automatic debt relief to all students who attended American Career Institute. As Inside Higher Ed pointed out, this is "the first time the department has granted automatic loan relief to all students of a college without requiring individual applications." About 650 former ACI students received closed school discharges; but the rest--about 3,900 students--are getting their loans discharged en masse. In addition, DOE also announced it will grant Borrower Defense discharges to 28,000 student who had attended Corinthian Colleges.

This is a good thing, of course; but why now? And why so small a gesture?

After all, Corinthian Colleges, which closed and filed bankruptcy under allegations of fraud, had more than 300,000 students; and ITT, which also filed bankruptcy, had 191,000 enrollees.  Yet so far, DOE has only grant Borrower Defense discharges to 28,000 former Corinthian students.

As for the small size of the gesture, I think Luke Herrine, legal director of the Debt Collective, got it right. "There's just no coherent logic whatsoever," he said. "The only thing I can think of is it would be deeply embarrassing for them to stop collecting on so much debt." It is one thing to forgive the loans of 4,000 ACI students and a small percentage of Corinthian students; it is quite another to discharge the debt of a half million people.

As for the timing, I think the Obama administration has known for quite a while that the only responsible thing to do about millions of people who took out loans to attend flaky for-profit colleges is to grant massive debt relief to nearly everyone without the necessity of reviewing each case individually. But that is a difficult thing to do politically.

I think DOE waited until a week before Obama leaves officer to offer token relief to ACI students in order to highlight the student-loan crisis when there is no time left for the Obama administration to do something substantive.

Like a retreating army that spikes its cannons before being overwhelmed by the enemy, the Obama administration may have wanted to publicize the student loan crisis to create difficulties for Trump.

Here are my thoughts on DOE's surprising but welcome action:

1) Granting debt relief to ACI students is the first small step toward doing what the federal government will inevitably be forced to do: forgive student debt to nearly all of the millions of people who attended for-profit colleges and received no economic benefit.  Billions of dollars in student loans will eventually be written off.

2) I think Obama's DOE took the action that it did for ACI students because the Obama team thinks Trump, who takes office in a few days, will try to prop up the for profits at the expense of exploited students.

But the Obamacrats may be wrong. After all, President-elect Trump knows how to read a  balance sheet, and he may quickly grasp the fact that the student loan program is a catastrophe. 

And if Mr. Trump realizes the enormity of the student loan crisis, he might actually take decisive action.  Everyone agrees that Mr. Trump understands bankruptcy and its value for distressed debtors.  President Trump might surprise everyone and ease the path to bankruptcy relief for millions of student loan debtors who will never be able to pay back their college loans.

References

Andrew Kreighbaum. Education Department announces thousands of new loan discharges. Inside Higher Ed, January 16, 2017.

The Department of Education ignores signs of an impending student loan meltdown: The Deepwater Horizon Syndrome

Deepwater Horizon, a giant offshore drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico, blew out on April 20, 2010.  Eleven workers died, and more than 200 million gallons of crude oil spewed into the Gulf.

According to the recent film about the blowout, this catastrophe could have been prevented. Instruments on the rig alerted workers that pressure was building around the concrete core and that a blowout was imminent; but supervisors convinced themselves that the instruments were malfunctioning and everything was fine. (John Malkovich, the movie's villain, plays Don Vidrine, a fiendish British Petroleum technocrat.)

John Malkovich in Deepwater Horizon

Something similar is happening with the student loan crisis. DOE issued its College Scorecard in 2015, which reported the percentage of students who are in repayment and actually paying down their loans.  DOE reported that 61.1 percent of student borrowers had made some progress toward paying down their loan balances 5 years into repayment.

But a coding error led to an erroneous report. As Robert Kelchen, a professor at Seton Hall University explained in a recent blog posting, the picture is much bleaker than DOE portrayed.

Five years into repayment, less than half of student borrowers have made any progress toward paying off their student loans. Among borrowers who attended for-profit colleges, the numbers are even more startling.  Five years into repayment only about a third of for-profit students (35 percent) had reduced their loan balances by even one dollar!

People who don't reduce their loan balances five years after beginning repayment are not likely to pay off their student loans--ever. In fact, the Brookings Institution reported in 2015 that nearly half of for-profit borrowers in a recent cohort had defaulted on their loans within 5 years (47 percent).

In short, DOE is behaving just like John Malkovich's character in the movie Deepwater Horizon. The data warn of an impending blowout; but DOE keeps pumping money to the for-profit colleges. A disaster is inevitable; and there are already millions of casualties.

References

Paul Fain. Feds' data error inflated loan repayment rates on the College Scoreboard. Inside Higher Ed, January 16, 2017.

Robert Kelchen. How Much Did a Coding Error Affect Student Loan Repayment Rates? Kelchen on Education, January 12, 2017.

Adam Looney & Constantine Yannelis, A crisis in student loans? How changes in the characteristics of borrowers and in the institutions they attended contributed to rising default rates. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution (2015).

Michael Stratford. The New College Scorecard. Inside Higher Ed, September 14, 2015.

Older Americans are burdened by their children's student loans

Gold will turn to gray and youth will fade away

They'll never care about you, call you old and in the way

Old And In The Way

David Grisman

Recorded by the Grateful Dead

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a useful report a few days ago on student-loan indebtedness and older Americans.  Here are some of the CFPB's key findings:

• "The number of consumers age 60 and older with outstanding student loan debt quadrupled from 2005 to 2015, increasing from about 700,000 to 2.8 million."

• During this ten-year period, the share of older student loan borrowers more than doubled, rising from 2.7 percent to 6.4 percent of all student-loan debtors.

• The average amount older Americans owe on student loans roughly doubled in ten years from $12,100 to $23,500.

• Among federal student loan borrowers who are 65 years old or older, nearly 40 percent are in default.

• In 2015, the total amount that older Americans owed for student loans was $66.7 billion.

All this is very interesting, but here is the CFPB's most disturbing finding: Almost three quarters of older Americans with student-loan debt (73 percent) reported that their loans were "for a child's and/or grandchild's education."

How did so many older Americans become burdened by loans taken out for their children or grandchildren? Two reasons: either they took out a federal Parent PLUS loan for a child's education or they co-signed a private student loan.

Currently, private banks hold about $102 billion in student loans. Except in rare circumstances, the banks will not issue private student loans unless a co-signer agrees to be responsible for the debt. In most cases, the co-signer on a private loan is a parent or grandparent. And, as the CFPB pointed out, more than half of all co-signers are 55 years or older.

This is a serious problem because a lot of older borrowers who are burdened by their children's or their grandchildren's education costs face serious financial challenges of their own. A great many are having trouble meeting their own health care costs or saving for their retirement. 

And here is the great tragedy behind the CFPB's report. Elderly people who co-sign a student loan for a child or grandchild cannot discharge that debt in bankruptcy unless they can meet the "undue hardship" test articulated by the bankruptcy courts. And that is a very hard test to meet.

And this is true whether an elderly person's debt arises from a federal student loan or a private student loan.  In fact, Congress revised the Bankruptcy Code in 2005 (under the leadership of Senator Joe Biden) to put private student loans under the same undue hardship standard that applies to federal loans.

This is unjust, and many commentators have argued that private student loans should be dischargeable in bankruptcy like any other unsecured debt. But Congress has not repaired its mistake by repealing that pernicious 2005 revision in the Bankruptcy Code.

A lot of liberal U.S. Senators and Congresspeople bleat in compassionate tones about the plight of distressed student-loan borrowers. But what have they done to bring tangible relief to millions of people--including elderly people--who are suffering under the weight of overwhelming debt?

Perhaps our national legislators will read the CFPB report and realize that elderly people who become overburdened by debt they incurred to educate their children or grandchildren should be able to discharge that debt in bankruptcy if they become insolvent without having to meet the Bankruptcy Code's undue hardship restriction.

But that will never happen. To paraphrase an old Grateful Dead song, Congress treats older Americans like they're just old and in the way.

References

Ron Lieber. The Big Pause You Should Take Before Co-Signing a Student Loan. New York Times, August 12, 2016.

Sirota, David. Joe Biden Backed Bills to Make It Harder For Americans To Reduce Their Student Debt. International Business Times, September 15  , 2015. Accessible: http://www.ibtimes.com/joe-biden-backed-bills-make-it-harder-americans-reduce-their-student-debt-2094664

Snapshot of older consumers and student loan debt. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Office for Older Americans, January 2017. 

The Department of Education's "Heightened Cash Monitoring" list and its list of programs that failed DOE's Gainful Employment Rule: Big Trouble Ahead for American Higher Education

As the Obama administration limps to a close, the U.S. Department of Education issued two lists that should scare the heck out of anyone working in the field of higher education.

First, a few days ago, DOE issued its most recent list of colleges that it flagged for "Heightened Cash Monitoring." More than 500 colleges are on that list.

At about the same time, DOE also released its list  of post-secondary programs that failed DOE's "gainful employment" rule.  More than 800 programs are on that list.

DOE's Heightened Cash Monitoring List: 539 institutions

Let's look first a DOE's Heightened Cash Monitoring List. Most of the schools on this list are for-profit institutions, which shouldn't surprise anyone. Is anyone shocked to discover that Lubbock Hair Academy in Lubbock, Texas and the Institute for Therapeutic Massage in Haskell, New Jersey are on that list?

A lot of the colleges on DOE's Heightened Cash Monitoring List are nonprofit liberal arts schools, and that isn't surprising either. The small liberal arts colleges are finding it more and more difficult to attract students, and a number are on shaky financial ground.  Colleges on the list include secular institutions like Pine Manor College and Mount Ida College in Massachusetts and religious institutions like St. Gregory's University in Shawnee, Oklahoma and St. Mary of the Woods College in Indiana.

But I was surprised that DOE put 38 foreign colleges on its Heightened Cash Monitoring List. Who would have thought the federal government would issue student loans to Americans studying abroad? But it does, and some of those foreign schools have financial concerns that got them on DOE's Heightened Cash Monitoring List.

Here are just a few of the foreign schools that made the list: Medical University of Gdnask in Poland; Tyndale University College and Seminary in Toronto, Canada; and the University of Gloucestershire in Cheltenham, England.

But what surprised me most was the number of public institutions that were flagged by DOE for Heightened Cash Monitoring--84! In Minnesota, more than 30 public colleges and universities made the list, including regional universities like Bemidji State University and Minnesota State University in Mankato. Nine public institutions in Alabama are also on the list, including the University of North Alabama and the University of West Alabama.

In short, DOE's latest Heightened Cash Monitoring list shows us that a lot of for-profit colleges, non-flagship public colleges, and small liberal arts colleges are under financial strain. Not all of the 539 schools on that list will fail in coming years; but certainly some of them will.

More Than 800 Programs Failed DOE's Gainful -Employment Rule

The Department of Education adopted a Gainful-Employment Rule in 2014, which was designed to protect students from enrolling in expensive for-profit colleges that did not prepare them for good jobs. Under this rule, programs risk losing federal student aid money if their graduates do not make enough money on average to justify the expense of getting their education. Specifically, programs fail the Gainful-Employment Rule if their graduates have student-loan payments that exceed 12 percent of their total earnings or 30 percent of their discretionary income.

Over 800 higher-education programs failed DOE's gainful-employment test, which it released this week. As reported by the Chronicle of Higher Education, 98 percent of the failing programs were offered by for-profit institutions. But even the mighty Harvard University made the list for one of its programs--a certificate program in theater arts.

Here is what surprised me about the list of programs that failed the gainful-employment test: Only two law schools were on it. Florida Coastal School of Law and Charleston School of Law, both for-profit law schools failed to meet the debt-to-earning ratio that the Gainful Employment rules requires.

Given the damning evidence compiled by Law School Transparency, I was puzzled by the small number of law schools that failed DOE's gainful employment rules.  After all, LSAT scores for students at 7 law schools are so low that Law School Transparency estimates that 50 percent of their graduates are at "extreme risk" of failing their bar exams. And LSAT scores at 26 schools are so low that a quarter of their graduates run an extreme risk of failing their licensing exams.

Conclusion: Big Trouble Ahead For Higher Education

DOE's Heightened Cash Monitoring List and its list of programs that failed the Gainful-Employment Rule are warning signs that a number of higher education institutions are in trouble. For-profit institutions, non-prestigious public college, and small liberal arts schools are all surviving on federal student-aid money. If DOE turns off the spigot to any of the schools on these two lists, those schools will certainly close within a few months.

If higher education leaders are not concerned about the financial health of their industry, they certainly should be.

Gee, I'm scared!

References

Andrew Kreighbaum. Latest Heightened Cash Monitoring List. Inside Higher Ed, January 12, 2017.

Law School Transparency. 2015 State of Legal Education.

Karen Sloan. Two Law Schools Get an 'F' for High Debt From Education Dept. Law.com, January 11, 2017.

U.S. Department of Education press release. Obama Administration Announces Final Rules to Protect Students from Poor-Performing Career College Programs, October 30, 2014.

U.S. Department of Education press release. Education Department Releases Final Debt-to-Earnings Rates for Gainful Employment Programs. January 9, 2017.

Fernanda Zamudio-Suarez. Over 800 Programs Fail Education Dept.'s Gainful-Employment Rule. Chronicle of Higher Education, January 9, 2017.

Fernanda Fernanda Zamudio-Suarez. Here Are the Programs That Failed the Gainful-Employment Rule. Chronicle of Higher Education, January 9, 2017.