600 new sanctions against Russia. Take that, you Slavic thugs!

 Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its third year. Ukraine’s counteroffensive, launched last spring, was a failure, and Russian troops are gaining ground in the Donbas region.  What to do?

Here’s an idea. Let’s slap new sanctions on the Russians—that’ll teach those Slavic thugs not to mess with Ukraine. But if these sanctions are such a good idea, why weren’t they implemented in 2022, right after Russia invaded Ukraine? Why wait two years? 

Are any American and Nato sanctions working? The Obama administration and other NATO countries implemented sanctions against Russia in 2014, right after Russia annexed Crimea. A year later, NATO claimed the sanctions were effective. NATO was wrong, however, because eight years after swallowing Crimea, Russia invaded Ukraine.

As John Paul Jones once said, “I have not yet begun to fight.” Now, President Biden is letting the world know he’s friggin' serious. Maybe his 600 new sanctions will get Russia to back off and get the hell out of Ukraine.

Or maybe not. The Guardian reported recently that the Russian economy grew by 3 percent last year despite the grinding war with Ukraine. On the other hand, Germany, one of Ukraine’s most important allies, saw its economy shrink over the same period.

We’ll see how things work out. If Russia and Ukraine are fighting a year from now, maybe the United States can find even more sanctions to impose on those pesky Slavic invaders. Of course, what Ukraine really needs right now is ammunition, not sanctions.  And if the war drags on, Ukraine will probably need more ammunition next year than it needs now.

The U.S is bumbling toward a serious confrontation with Russia over Ukraine

 2024 dawns with America embroiled in a war in Eastern Europe. The United States is fighting a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, and the Russians are winning.

The United States bears a large share of responsibility for this catastrophe. Our government destabilized Ukraine in 2014 when it goaded the Ukrainians into overthrowing a popularly elected pro-Russian president. Within weeks, Russia responded by annexing Crimea. Six years later, Russia invaded Ukraine and now occupies the largely Russian-speaking Donbas region in the eastern region of that wretched country.

The Ukraine war has been a humanitarian disaster. At least a half million people have been killed or maimed in Ukraine, and the country's population has been cut in half as refugees flee to other European countries to escape the fighting. 

Without question, Ukraine is losing its war with Russia. Ukraine's vaunted spring counteroffensive achieved almost nothing. The Ukrainians will never oust Russia from Crimea or the Donbas, and everyone knows it.

Anyone who thinks Russia will tire of the war and simply give up doesn't know Russian history. Hitler besieged Leningrad during World War II for 900 days and never captured the city, even though one million Russians starved to death before the Russians broke the siege.

Americans are mistaken if they think the Ukraine misadventure will not affect them. Our politicians crow that the Ukraine war is a windfall for the United States because the Ukrainians are killing Russians with American weapons while the United States sits safely on the sidelines.  The Ukraine war will weaken Russia, the pundits say, but they are wrong.

Russia's army is larger today than it was before the Ukraine war began, and it is the United States, not Russia, that is tiring of the war. Congress is balking at the prospect of limitless funding for the Ukraine project, and our European allies are beginning to wish they had never followed our cognitively challenged President into the briar patch that is Ukraine.

Americans will pay a price for for our feckless and arrogant foreign policy. President Putin will have his revenge against us. He is tirelessly working toward the day when the US dollar is no longer the world’s reserve currency. We can expect some act of retribution on a scale that will shock us.

There will be a reckoning for our government's behavior, likely before the November 2024 election.

George Will’s incoherent defense of the Ukraine war

I began reading George Will's columns back in the 1960s when I was in junior high school. My parents subscribed to Newsweek magazine, and every week, I would turn to the issue's last page to read George Will's commentary. His well-reasoned defense of conservative principles and use of historical references to buttress his arguments impressed me.

That was 50 years ago, but Mr. Will is still a powerful and persuasive political commentator. I was disheartened, however, by Will's recent column in support of American involvement in the Ukraine war.

Mr. Will’s arguments were based on two false premises. First, he said that Russia's war is an attempt to annihilate Ukraine. I don't think that's accurate. Russia's initial assault was a drive toward Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Putin may have thought his invasion would topple the Ukrainian government and bring Ukraine back into the orbit of Russian power.

However, it's evident that Russia is fighting a defensive war in Ukraine, and its territorial goals are modest. First, Russia is holding on to the Donbas, where Russian separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian army for seven years.

In addition, Russia is firmly entrenched in Crimea, where it has long maintained a substantial naval base. Surely everyone realizes that Russia has a legitimate strategic interest in the Black Sea and that its ability to protect it would be severely crippled if Russia lost Crimea.

Will's main argument for supporting the Ukraine war is the claim that the U.S. promotes Ukrainian nationalism and the concept of nationalism as a vibrant political idea. Will writes:

 Cosmopolitanism has its virtues. But so does nationalism Because the nation-state is essential for protecting self-government, and pride in one’s cultural inheritance impedes the blandness of cultural homogenization.

Mr. Will is wrong to say that American involvement in the Ukraine war is motivated by a desire to promote nationalism. On the contrary, President Biden's administration is pursuing a globalist agenda that seems intent on weakening the United States on the world stage and dismantling America's traditional national values, such as patriotism, the nuclear family, and self-reliance.

Moreover, Will's journalistic home, the Washington Post, and all the legacy media are globalists--not nationalists.  Like the Biden administration, the mainstream media seems intent on stamping out America's national and cultural identity. Indeed, patriotism is seldom mentioned by the progressive elites, and the patriotic impulse has been redefined as "Christian nationalism" or "white nationalism"--code words for fascism.

As I read George Will’s defense of America's Ukraine policy, I sensed his heart wasn't in it. Unlike most of his prose, this particular essay is incoherent and unpersuasive. Perhaps on an unconscious level, Will knows that the Ukraine adventure weakens the United States as a world power and that the prime beneficiary of this disaster is the defense industry.

America's Ukraine project is going to blow up in our faces. And when the autopsy is complete on the disaster that befell Ukraine, the fingerprints of the nation’s political and intellectual elites will be all over the body. 

Mr. Will has a fine mind and a keen sense of decency. He should think of his reputation before allowing himself to be branded as an apologist for the Ukraine disaster.

The Ukraine war. Do Americans know what's really going on?

The man who reads nothing at all," Thomas Jefferson observed,  "is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers."

Jefferson's observation was accurate when he wrote it, and it's even more true today. I am interested in the war in Ukraine and try to learn more about it by reading online news stories.

As I skim through the online newspaper reports, it seems like they're all written by the same person. Day after day, I read stories about Russian rockets and drones that injure Ukrainian civilians. According to the news stories, few civilians are killed by these attacks, and most Russian missiles are shot down. The overall message of these newspaper accounts seems to be that the Russian attacks are a sign of Russian brutality but are no more than a nuisance for the civilian population. I'm skeptical.

Today, I read that Ukrainians have introduced amissile with a range of 400 miles. Did the Ukrainians invent this new menace on their own? Again, I'm skeptical. Surely, most of these innovations were developed with American assistance.

Almost daily, the legacy media refers to Russia's "illegal” occupation of Crimea. Illegal in what sense? After all, the Crimeans voted on annexation and overwhelmingly said they wanted to be part of Russia. It's possible that the voting was rigged by the Putin government and that the people living in Crimea don't want to be part of Russia.

Again, I'm skeptical. Crimea has been part of Russia since at least the 18th century. Americans have no interest in history, but they should do a little reading on the Crimean War (1853-1856).

Russia had an important naval base in Crimea in 2014 when the region was annexed. It seems reasonable that the Russians were concerned about the security of that base when Ukraine made a radical shift toward aligning with the West after the Maidan uprising.

I am no apologist for Russian imperialism, but the United States should not be promoting a war in Eastern Europe without a clear sense of what that war is about. I'm beginning to think the US has bullied its way into a conflict that is none of our damn business.

The Ukrainian War isn’t a trivial event.  According to the New York Times, nearly a half million soldiers have been killed or wounded over the past 18 months. The Times estimates that 70,000 Ukrainian troops have lost their lives. An independent military analyst thinks the number is more than five times that number. Who knows?

One thing is certain. The war between Russia and Ukraine has wrecked Ukraine. Millions of refugees have fled the country. Millions more have been displaced from their homes. Ukraine is a significant source of the world's food supply, and its ability to raise and export grain has been severely hampered.

Americans seem indifferent to the fact that our country is prosecuting a proxy war against a nuclear power. We apparently think we can get away with this reckless behavior and that there are no consequences for our participation in the slaughter.

I don't think so.

A Half Million Ukrainian War Casualties and 6 Million Refugees: What’s the Point?

 During the First World War, it was said that the British military maintained three sets of casualty lists. One version was kept to hoodwink the public. A second set was maintained to dupe the British War Office. And the third set was kept to deceive itself.

According to the New York Times, nearly half a million troops have been killed or wounded over the last 18 months of Ukraine's war with Russia. The Times calculates that 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and another 180,000 wounded. Russian military casualties are even higher: 120,000 deaths and 180,000 injured.

Of course, these numbers are only estimates. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have revealed their casualty lists. These tallies don't include civilian casualties, which must be severe given the routine bombing of Ukrainian towns and villages by the Russians.

As the Times put it, the toll of dead and wounded is “staggering.” To put it in perspective, about 58,000 American soldiers died during the Vietnam War, a conflict that stretched over ten years. Ukraine, a country with a much smaller population, lost 70,000 soldiers in only 18 months.

Then there are the refugees. Around 8 million Ukrainians have fled the country, and another 5 million have been displaced but still live in Ukraine.

Most Americans feel no moral responsibility for this catastrophe, even though American weapons and money have significantly contributed to the carnage. College students, by the millions, protested the war in Vietnam, but today's young students have more refined moral sensibilities. They can be whipped into a frenzy if a conservative judge gives a speech on a college campus. They don't give a shit about the Ukrainians.

And consider this. The New York Times may have miscalculated the death toll from the Ukrainian war. Douglas Macgregor. a retired U.S. Army officer, believes 400,000 Ukrainians have been killed during the war—more than five times the number reported by the Times.

America's legacy media report that Ukraine is winning this war, but that's untrue. Ukraine will never recover Crimea or the Donbas, no matter how many Ukrainians are killed or maimed in this senseless war with Russia. And make no mistake. The Russians will find a way to make America pay for provoking this pointless conflict.

Are we having fun yet? The Ukraine war intensifies, and Americans are enthralled by Barbie

Ukraine’s war with Russia has dragged on for 18 months and shows no signs of ending. It's like The Walking Dead series; it ran on and on long after its audience became bored. General Milley warned Americans that the war would be a long one; perhaps the only honest thing he's said about it.

The mainstream media casts this war as a barbaric act of Russian aggression. However, pro-war columnists neglect to mention that the United States provoked this war when it helped overthrow Ukraine’s democratically elected pro-Russian president in 2014. American meddling alarmed the Russians, and they quickly seized Crimea, where a substantial Russian naval base is located.

Pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists, aided by the Russian government, have been fighting the Ukrainian army in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine since 2014--resulting in a stalemate. Then in February 2021, President Vladimir Putin decided he's had enough and ordered the Russian army to invade Ukraine. 

So far, the Ukrainians have held their own, aided mightily by high-tech weapons and money donated by the NATO countries and the United States. The US alone has invested $100 billion in the Ukrainian Project.

Ukraine launched its highly publicized counteroffensive against the Russians in the late spring of this year. It is now August, and it is clear that the Ukrainian counterattack has failed.

Now Ukraine seeks to heat up this war against Russia by other means. Earlier this year, the Ukrainians launched missile attacks against the city of Moscow. They also attacked the Kerch Bridge, a critical land link between Crimea and the Russian motherland.

Russia retaliated by canceling the grain agreement that allowed Ukrainian wheat to be exported by sea. Russia also began bombing Odessa and other important grain ports on the Danube River.

Now the war has spread to the Black Sea. Ukrainians have attacked at least three Russian military vessels and one civilian ship. Russia promised to retaliate and began intensifying its aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Perhaps Americans should be grateful that the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed. Some military analysts believe a successful counterattack might provoke the Russians to use tactical nuclear weapons.

Biden apparently believes attacks on Russian shipping, the Russian heartland, and the city of Moscow will force the Russians to abandon the war. If so, he is delusional. The Russians will never surrender Crimea or the Donbas.

American foreign policy is directed by nincompoops. Our NATO allies are beginning to realize they were snookered when they agreed to back Biden’s foolish war in Ukraine.

No one can predict the event that would prompt the Russians to use tactical nuclear weapons, but we may soon find out. President Biden seems determined to drive Russia to the breaking point.

The United States is courting mortal danger by meddling in Eastern European geopolitics, and the mainstream media is complicit in this insane behavior. Meanwhile, Americans are mesmerized by the new Barbie movie, a fantasy flick for people living in Fantasy Land.

Psst: Have you seen the new Barbie movie?

Truth is the first casualty of war: I am opposed to American involvement in the Ukrainian conflict

 Truth, the sages say, is the first casualty of war. This aphorism certainly applies to the war in Ukraine.

Who knows what is actually going on? Daily, we read headlines reporting that the Ukrainians have shot down dozens of Russian missiles and drones. The media tells us that only a handful of projectiles get through Ukrainian defenses, and only a few civilians get killed. We are also told that the Ukrainian military is holding its own against the Russians and making modest gains on the battlefront.

Are these reports accurate? What are the military casualties that have been suffered on both sides? How extensive is the damage to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure after 16 months of war? The death and carnage must be immense.

Everyone acknowledges that military aid from NATO and the United States is the only reason the Russians haven’t conquered Ukraine. Yet the Russians claim that NATO weapons are not invincible and that they have destroyed or captured state-of-the-art NATO tanks and armored vehicles. 

Are the Russians telling the truth? Who knows?

The United States declares it is not at war with Russia, yet the Russians surely believe we are. American involvement has been crucial in preventing a Russian victory. American weapons, ammunition, and expertise have contributed to massive Russian casualties, and even the city of Moscow has come under attack.

I see no good outcome to this war. I don’t believe the Ukrainians can win it. Certainly, Volodymyr Zelenskyy's prediction that the Ukrainians will reclaim Crimea is an idle boast. After all, the Russians have a major naval base there, and losing it would be an existential threat to its status as a military power.

It seems inevitable that the Russians will control the Russian-speaking regions of eastern Ukraine when this war is over. 

Why is the United States contributing to the death and destruction in Ukraine? I can think of no other reason but to distract the American people from our government's colossal corruption and fraud.

I might feel better about this war if our president were competent. But he is not.  Even if the New York Times won't admit it, the whole world knows that Joe Biden suffers from dementia and is a crook. 

How is America paying for the weapons, ammunition, and logistical support it sends to Kyiv? Our country has run a deficit budget for 20 years and can’t pay its bills even without the costs of the Ukrainian war.

American involvement in the Ukraine war is wrong. It has weakened our country and diminished the respect the United States has across the globe.

Furthermore, the Russians will find a way to punish the United States for fomenting and prosecuting this needless war. I don’t think the Russians will retaliate militarily. Rather, they will figure out a way to hurt America economically--perhaps by undermining the status of the American dollar as the world's reserve currency.

If the American public continues to permit our government to prolong the Ukrainian war, all Americans will pay a heavy price. I think we will pay that price soon--perhaps within the next one or two years.

photo credit: CBC

Always Leave a Rat a Way Out: An Old Guy's Misgivings About the War in Ukraine

 When I was a young man practicing law in Alaska, my senior partner gave me some advice I never forgot. Several times during my legal career, I had an opportunity to completely devastate a nefarious party that had pressed a frivolous claim against one of my clients.

"I've got you now," I told myself as I made plans not only to defeat my opponent but to humiliate and destroy him. In these cases, my senior partner always cautioned prudence and restraint. "Richard," he would say, "always leave a rat a way out."

And he was right. I learned that a party pressed to the wall almost always lashes out viciously and behaves recklessly to the detriment of everyone--good guys and bad guys alike.

So far, President Putin's war against Ukraine has not gone well for the Russians. To almost everyone's surprise, Ukraine has beaten back the Russian invasion, inflicting heavy casualties. The Ukrainians have destroyed countless Russian tanks, airplanes, and even the flagship of Russia's Black Sea fleet.  The Ukrainians have been so exhilarated by their battlefield successes that President Zelensky promises to evict the Russians from Crimea, where they have been since 2014 (and centuries before that).

What fun! In America, the elite media crows with delight. How delicious to rub Mr. Putin's face in the mud.  

We should remember, however, what George Orwell said about war. "One of the most horrible features of war," he observed, "is that all the war propaganda, all the screaming and lies and hatred, come invariable from people who are not fighting."

With a few rare exceptions, the reporters who work at the New York Times, Washington Post, and CNBC are not being shot at. If the Ukraine war escalates, their children won't be drafted. Their paychecks, restaurants, and expense accounts won't be affected. The beaches of Martha's Vinyard and the Hamptons will be pristine and peaceful no matter what happens to the Russians and the Ukrainians.

We should remember, however, that Russia is a nuclear power. We may sneer at Putin's threats to unleash tactical nuclear weapons. We may comfort ourselves that Russia is merely a regional power, unlike the mighty United States, which is supposedly the most powerful military power in the world.

Nevertheless, we should always leave a rat a way out. 

Our diplomats and political leaders may consider Ukraine an American playground that can be manipulated like a child's toy. Perhaps they have not read about Stalin's Holodomor or the savagery of the Russians and the Germans in the blood lands of Ukraine and Belarus during the Second World War.

Of course, I'm some old guy living in Flyover Country. What do I know compared to the policymakers and political strategists who got their degrees from Harvard, Yale, and Georgetown?

However, I've done a little reading, and I recall that Hitler woefully underestimated the Russians when he launched Operation Barbarossa in the summer of 1941. The Germans pushed the Russian army back to the outskirts of Leningrad, Stalingrad, and Moscow, but in the end, Russian soldiers showed up in the streets of Berlin in May 1945. I'll bet the Germans wished they had let Russia alone.

And Napolean, one of the world's greatest military strategists, lost his entire army when he foolishly invaded Russia in 1812. By the time that adventure ended, little Nappie had lost ninety percent of his army, with the survivors reduced to cannibalism.

So let the United States strip our nation's arsenals to give high-tech weapons to the Ukrainians.  Let's see how it works out. As for me, I don't want my grandchildren fighting in Europe in a war that got out of control because the western powers didn't leave a rat a way out. 

Let's you and him fight!