How Screwed Up is the Federal Student Loan Program? We Can Tell You, But Then We'd Have to Kill You!

 Betsy DeVos, the Wicked Witch of the Midwest, was perhaps the most despised member of President Trump's cabinet. As Trump's Education Secretary, she coddled the for-profit college industry and (in my opinion) bungled the Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program.

Nevertheless, in a speech delivered in November 2018, DeVos revealed to the nation just how totally screwed up the federal student loan program really is. She deserves some credit for that.

Here's what DeVos said:

• The federal government holds $1.5 trillion in outstanding student loans, one-third of all national assets.

• Only one in four federal student-loan borrowers were paying down the principal and interest on their debt.

• Twenty percent of all federal student loans were delinquent or in default, which was seven times the delinquency rate on credit card debt.

• The debt level of individual borrowers had ballooned between 2010 and 2018 because students were borrowing substantially more money.

• The federal government's portfolio of outstanding student loans constituted 10 percent of our nation's total national debt.

Soon after giving this speech, DeVos engaged a private firm to determine just how bad the student loan crisis was. Jeff Courtney, a former JP Morgan executive, headed up this investigation, and here is what he found:

Although DOE calculated that it would eventually receive 96 cents of every student-loan dollar in default, in fact, it would only recover between 51 and 63 percent.

Courtney also found that DOE allows student-loan defaulters to sign up for new loans, which are used to pay off the defaulted loans. When that happens, the defaulted loans are categorized as paid in full when, in fact, they aren't paid off at all.

DeVos acknowledged that private businesses could not legally operate in this way. In fact, she said, if a private actor engaged in DOE's accounting practices, that person would "probably be behind bars." 

Of course, we know that Courtney's findings aren't the only evidence of DOE's financial skulduggery.  DOE has been putting distressed debtors into income-based repayment plans (IBRP) and counting the loans in these plans as performing loans.

But that is not correct. Approximately 9 million student borrowers are in IBRPs, and their monthly payments are not large enough to pay accruing interest. Thus, IBRP participants see their loan balances grow with each passing month, even when they make regular monthly loan payments. 

In fact, all 9 million IBRP participants are in default--if default means never paying off the debt.

In recent months,  Congressional members have been asking DOE to disclose the actual cost of the federal student loan portfolio, but Education Secretary Miguel Cardona hasn't been forthcoming.

Here is the essence of the matter. DOE knows the federal student loan portfolio is a trainwreck, but it hopes to keep the catastrophe a secret for as long as possible.  

It's like that old joke about the  CIA and classified information: We can tell you the truth about the student-loan program, but then we'd have to kill you.

Sources

Betsy DeVos. Prepared Remarks by U.S. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos to Federal Student Aid's Training Conference. November 27, 2018. [The DOE link to this speech  was either taken down or obscured.]

Betsy revealed just how screwed up the federal student loan program really is.

Independent expert predicts student loan program will lose a half trillion bucks: Is he right?

 In 2018, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos hired Jeff Courtney, a former JP Morgan executive, to do a forensic analysis of the federal student loan program.  DeVos suspected the program was generating huge losses. 

In fact, in November 2018, DeVos said publicly that only one in four student borrowers were paying down both principal and interest on their debt. She also acknowledged that 20 percent of all federal student loans were either delinquent or in default.

Mr. Courtney's analysis confirmed Secretary DeVos's suspicions. Courtney concluded that roughly one-third of the Education Department's student-loan portfolio will never be paid back. That's about a half-trillion-dollar loss.

The Department of Education rejects Mr. Courtney's conclusions. DOE says his "analysis used incomplete, inaccurate data and suffered from significant methodological shortcomings . .  . ."

Maybe. But we don't need a sophisticated economic model to know that the federal student-loan program is underwater.  We know that 8 million student borrowers are in income-based repayment programs and are making payments too small to pay down their loans' principal plus accruing interest.

So, that is 8 million student debtors who will never pay back their loans. That fact alone should dispel any notion that the federal student loan program is solvent.

Policymakers on the left and on the right can continue arguing about the student-loan crisis as if it were merely a political issue.  But it is not--it is an economic calamity for millions of distressed student-loan debtors. 

We know for sure that burdensome student-loan debt is hindering young Americans from buying homes, having children, and saving for their retirement.  Granting partial student-debt relief, as some politicians propose, will do little to relieve widespread suffering.

In my view, the way to address the student-loan mess is for Congress to amend the Bankruptcy Code to allow insolvent student borrowers to discharge their loans in bankruptcy like any other consumer debt.

Congress also needs shut down the Parent PLUS program, which has a high default rate, particularly among minority and low-income families. 

And Congress must put some realistic cap on the amount of money students can borrow for their college education. It is insane for private colleges to peg their tuition rates at $25,000 a semester. They can only get away with this highway robbery because students can take out federal loans to finance their studies.

Mr. Jeff Courtney believes one-third of student-loan dollars will never be paid back. If Congress doesn't address the college-loan crisis forthrightly and very soon, the losses will be much higher than that.

Bard College: Tuition is $56,000 a year