Showing posts with label Pay as You Earn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pay as You Earn. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Like a Secret Drunk Who Hides A Bottle of Bourbon in His Office Drawer, The Higher Education Industry is Addicted to Student Loans But Won't Admit It

Almost everyone agrees that Alcoholics Anonymous has the best treatment program for alcoholics. AA's simple 12-step program is followed by alcoholics all over the United States, and AA's method for treating alcoholics has been adapted for other addictions as well--including the addiction to drugs.

Perhaps the higher education industry should adopt an AA-style 12-step program to treat its addiction to the federal student loan program.  After all, higher education's dependence on federal student aid money really is an addiction. For-profit colleges in particular could not survive a week without regular infusions of federal cash.

Drinking problem? What drinking problem?
photo credit: twentytwowords.com
But the Obama administration and Arne Duncan's Department of Education treat the student-loan mess as if it were just an irritating  problem and not a full-blown crisis.  It's like Aunt Sally's tolerance for Uncle Ed's drinking binges--she just smiles while reassuring herself that Ed maybe drinks just a wee bit too much.

And President Obama's announcement to expand the Pay As You Earn program shows us that he is in denial about the magnitude of the student-loan crisis.  His administration's decision to expand the program, like its decision to continue strengthening the regulation of the for-profit industry, shows that President Obama and Arne Duncan know that the student-loan mess is serious.  But they want to address the problem like Aunt Sally deals with Uncle Ed's drinking--they just want to water down the whiskey.

Let's face it, in spite of the New York Times' sycophantic praise, Pay As You Earn is nothing more than a plan to stretch students' 10-year student-loan repayment obligations to 20 years.  Yes, this will reduce borrowers' monthly payments, which will give college-loan debtors some short-term relief; but borrowers will be paying on their loans for a majority of their working lives. Is that a real solution?

Second, although I haven't seen any financial analysis to back me up on this observation, I suspect a lot of people who elect the government's income-based repayment options for paying back their loans  won't be making payments large enough to reduce the principal on their debt.  When their loan obligations are discharged after 20 years, millions of people will still owe as much as they borrowed. How can that be a good thing?

So let's look at that 12-step plan.

Step number one is to admit that you have a problem and are powerless to control it.  The Feds could follow that first step by releasing the real student-loan default rate--not that phony three-year rate it releases every October.  According to DOE's latest report, about 15 percent of  recent debtors defaulted within three years of beginning their loan repayment phase; for students who attended for-profit colleges, the rate is 21 percent.

Those numbers are bad but they dramatically understate the true default rate.  Many for-profits, community colleges and some traditional four-year schools have hired so-called "default prevention" firms to contact distressed student borrowers and encourage them to sign up for economic hardship deferments.  Students who obtain these deferments--which are quite easy to get--are not counted as defaulters even though they are not making loan payments.

Just facing up to the reality of how many millions of people are not paying back their loans would be an admission that the student-loan program is out of control.  That's step number 1 of the AA's 12-step plan.

Another important step in AA's 12-step program is to make amends to the people you have injured. I believe that is step number 9.

And of course the Obama administration, Congress and the nation's colleges and universities haven't made amends to the people who have been hurt by the student-loan program.  And until they make amends they haven't done what is necessary to break the higher education industry's dependence on federal student aid money.

What should be done?  As I have tirelessly advocated, Congress needs to amend the Bankruptcy Code to allow insolvent student-loan debtors to discharge their  student loans in bankruptcy so long as they file in good faith.

Second, the federal government should stop garnishing the Social Security checks of elderly student-loan debtors who defaulted on their loans.

And third, the for-profit college industry needs to be shut down.

Of course none of these things are going to happen.  Our government will continue to hide the true magnitude of the student-loan default rate, and it will continue to let millions of people suffer who have no reasonable hope of ever paying off their student loans.

And just like Uncle Ed, who drinks in secret, our nation's colleges and universities will continue abusing students by forcing them to borrow more and more money.  Eventually, Uncle Ed will kill himself from excessive drinking. And eventually, higher education's addiction to federal student aid will destroy the integrity of our nation's colleges and universities, which were once the envy of the world.

No one knows just how Uncle Ed will die--liver disease or a fatal car accident.  And no one knows just how low American higher education will go in terms of its degradation.  But the future is bleak for both of them.

References

Student Borrowers and the Economy. New York Times, June 11, 2014, p. A20.




Sunday, June 8, 2014

Workin' for the Man: President Obama's Disasterous Plan to Expand Income-Based Repayment Programs for Student Loan Debtors

Tomorrow, President Obama is expected to announce an expansion of his "Pay as You Earn" income-based repayment program for student loan debtors. This program,  which Obama initiated by executive action in 2011, allows student-loan debtors to pay roughly 10 percent of their income on their loans for a period of 20 years.  (The exact formula is a bit more complicated that.)  At the end of the 20-year repayment period, any unpaid loan balance will be forgiven.


Passing the student-loan mess on to the next president
Pay as You Earn is popular with student debtors because it is more generous than the other income-based repayment (IBRP) options. One major program requires debtors to pay 15 percent of their income over a period of 25 years.

But a lot of student debtors don't qualify for Pay As You Earn under present regulations. According to the New York Times, Obama plans to extend eligibility to an additional 5 million student-loan borrowers, including those who took out loans before October 2007. 

Is Pay As You Earn a good thing for the nation's distressed student-loan debtors. Yes it is--at least in the short term. For people struggling to pay mountains of debt under the standard 10-year repayment plan, Pas As You Earn will lower monthly payments substantially.  People who are currently paying 15 percent of their income under a 25-year IBRP will be delighted to switch to Obama's more generous Pay As-You Earn program.  People who are unemployed or underemployed will be particularly grateful, because if their income falls below the official poverty level, they won't have to make any monthly payments at all.

Is there a down side to Pay As You Earn? You bet.

First of all, all the income-base repayment plans remove all incentives for student borrowers to limit the amount of money they borrow. If their loan payments are based on their income and not the amount they borrow, then there is no reason not to borrow as much money as you can.

Second, Pay As You Earn and other IBRPs do nothing to slow the burgeoning cost of going to college.  Colleges have no incentive to keep their costs down, because they know students will simply borrow more money to cover tuition hikes.  What do colleges care if their graduates are making student-loan payments for 20 years?

Third--and most significantly, these long-term repayment plans are going to fundamentally change the way Americans view postsecondary education and the world of work. There was a time when low-income individuals worked their way through college, graduated with no debt, and entered the workforce determined to buy homes, start families, and begin the confident climb up the economic ladder.

Now, 18- and 19-year olds are going to begin college knowing that they will pay for their postsecondary education by donating some percentage of their income to the federal government over the majority of their working lives.  In essence, they will become indentured servants for the government--sharecroppers if you will.

I think this arrangement will foster cynicism among the young, because they will realize on some level that they have been forced into unreasonable levels of indebtedness because colleges refuse to control their costs. They will see university presidents like NYU's John Sexton make outrageous amounts of money while they sign up for long-term college-loan repayment plans that they will not pay off until they are in their 40s and 50s.

And, since they won't have to pay anything under Pay As You Earn if they are unemployed or live below the poverty level, I think many of them will postpone going to work. Many will figure that it makes sense to travel or take low-wage jobs in exotic locales rather than seek more remunerative employment. And the incentive to work "off the books" will increase, because people in IBRPS who enter the cash economy will not only avoid paying taxes and making Social Security contributions, they will avoid making student-loan payments as well.

Moreover, once these college-going young people figure out that their payments will be based on their incomes and not the amount they borrow, they will borrow as much as they can.

I appreciate the President's efforts to provide overburdened college-loan debtors some immediate relief by offering plans to lower monthly loan payments while extending the loan repayment period. Unfortunately, in the long run, the results will be catastrophic.

In reality, President Obama is simply passing the student-loan mess on to the next president to deal with.  Millions of people may see their student-loan payments go down in the short-term, but they will be significantly extending the length of their loan repayment period. Most Pay-As-You-Earn participants --I predict--won't be making loan payments large enough to cover accruing interest  or pay down the principal on their notes--which means they won't really be paying their loans back at all. 

And meantime--total student-loan indebtedness--now more than $1 trillion dollars--will continue to grow and grow.


References

Jackie Calmes. Obama Plans Steps to Ease Student Debt. New York Times, June 8, 2014, p. 17.











Saturday, May 10, 2014

It Seemed Like a Good Idea at the Time: Student-Loan Forgiveness Programs are Making the Student Loan Crisis Worse

The federal government's student-loan forgiveness programs--like  Germany's decision to invade Russia in 1941--must have seemed like a good idea at the time.

After all, millions of college students are burdened by crushing student loans, the student-loan default rate creeps ever upward, and many college graduates have not gotten jobs that pay well enough to service their student-loan debt.

So why not create some programs that will lower student borrowers' monthly loan payments?

  And so the government created two programs that are essentially student-loan forgiveness programs. One program allows people who take public service jobs to make loan payments based on a percentage of their income for ten years. At the end of the ten-year period, the balance of their loans are forgiven.

Germany invaded Russia in the summer of 1941
It seemed like a good idea at the time.

The other program--income-based repayment plans (IBRPs) --allows borrowers to make monthly student-loan payments based on a percentage of their income for 20 or 25 years (there are several variations). Just as with the public-service loan forgiveness plans, student-loan debtors will see the balance of their loans forgiven at the end of the repayment period.

The attractiveness of these programs for student-loan borrowers is obvious. They see their monthly payments go down, which may keep many student-loan debtors from going into default.

Currently, about 1.3 million borrowers are enrolled in public-service loan forgiveness plans, and about the same number are enrolled in IBRPS. 

But here is the downside.  None of these programs contain provisions to discourage students from borrowing more money than necessary.  In fact--since the monthly payments are based on a percentage of borrowers' income and not the amount borrowed, the programs contain a perverse incentive to borrow as much as possible.  As a result, many of the people making income-based loan payments will never pay back even a portion of their loans.

Here are a couple of examples--one taken from a Wall Street Journal article and one taken from a New York Times story--that illustrate the problem.

Haley Schafer borrowed $312,000 to attend veterinary school in the Caribbean, even though the job market for veterinarians in the United States is terrible  Schafer got a job making about $60,000 a year, not nearly enough to comfortably pay back her student loans under the standard 10-year repayment plan.

So Schafer signed up for a 25-year income-based repayment plan that lowered her monthly loan payments to about $400 a month. Unfortunately,  her monthly payments aren't large enough to cover accruing interest on her loans.  The New York Times estimated that her loan balance will continue to grow, and when she finishes her 25-year repayment plan her loan balance will be more than twice the amount that she borrowed--$650,000!

And that's Haley Schafer's story. Now let's hear about Max Norris, a public-service attorney who borrowed $172,000 to go to University of California's Hastings College of Law.  Under the public-service student-loan forgiveness plan, he only pays $420 a month on his loan balance, not enough to cover accruing interest.

Norris's loan balance will be forgiven after 10  years. Assuming Norris stays in public service and gets annual raises of 4 percent, the government will forgive $225,000 in student-loan indebtedness--more than Norris borrowed!

In other words, the federal government is giving Morris a 100 percent subsidy to go to law school, even though the market is flooded with lawyers. In fact there are currently two law-school graduates for every new legal job.

Surely, anyone can see that it makes no sense for the federal government to permit people to borrow $100,000 or more to train people for professions that are already overcrowded and then allow them to make loan payments that are so small that the payments don't cover the accruing interest.

But that is what our federal government is doing.  

And, although these programs may help keep the student-loan default rate down, they are actually making the student loan-crisis worse.  Not only do we have 7 million people who stopped making loan payments and are in default, we have another 9 million who aren't making payments because they received an economic hardship deferment or are entitled to some other form of forbearance.  And then we have 2.5 million people who are making loan payments based not on the amount they borrowed but on their income, which means most will never pay off the principal of their loans.

In short--the number of people who will never pay off their student loans is in the millions--many, many millions.

References

Josh Mitchell. Student-Debt Forgiveness Plans Skyrocket, Raising Fears Over Costs, Higher Tuition. Wall Street Journal, April 22, 2014.

David Segal. High Debt and Falling Demand Trap New Vets. New York Times, February 23, 2013. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/business/high-debt-and-falling-demand-trap-new-veterinarians.html?_r=0

 

Monday, November 4, 2013

President Obama Pushes Income-Based Repayment Plans for Student-Loan Debtors: Madness! Madness!

The U.S. Department of Education is sending e-mails to selected student-loan borrowers, urging them to consider signing up for income-based repayment plans (IBRs) to pay off their student loans. Currently, about 1.6 million student-loan borrowers participate in IBR plans, but DOE wants to sign up 3.6 million additional participants within the next six weeks.  If DOE is successful, more than 5 million people will soon be making student-loan payments based on a percentage of their income over a long period of time--20 to 25 years.

A lot of the major players in higher education like IBRs--"pay as you earn" plans as some people call them. In a co-authored essay in Chronicle of Higher Education, Sandy Baum of the College Board lauded the President's plan for notifying students about IBRs and said IBRs should be the "default option" for student-loan repayment. In other words, unless student borrowers affirmatively opt out, they would automatically be enrolled in a student-loan repayment plan that would stretch their payments out over 20 or 25 years.  Wow, what a super idea!

And how will income-based loan repayments be collected? The details aren't clear yet, but I imagine the feds will do what the Brookings Institution recommends.  Student-loan borrowers will have their loan payments deducted from their payroll checks. The IRS will become the national debt collector, and a student-loan borrower's monthly loan payments will go up or down based on the borrower's current income, like income-tax withholding payments. 

Thus, the day may be coming when former college students will see their monthly student-loan payment appear as just another deduction on their paychecks--like Social Security, mandatory retirement contributions, and federal and state taxes. And for most borrowers, those deductions will last about a quarter of a century.

President Obama probably thinks he is doing college-loan debtors a favor by encouraging them to sign up for long-term repayment plans. He reminds me of Colonel Nicholson in Bridge on the River Kwai. Colonel Nicholson (played by Alec Guinness) is so obsessed with building a bridge for the Japanese army that he loses sight of the fact that he is hurting his country's cause, not helping it.. Not until the end of the movie does the Colonel realize that he has betrayed his country and the soldiers he commands.  The last lines of the movie are: "Madness, Madness!"
Col. Nicholson in Bridge on the River Kwai
"Madness! Madness!"

Why are all the insiders lining up in favor of IBRs? Two reasons:

IBR plans will hide the student-loan default crisis. First and most importantly, IBRs are a cosmetic fix for the soaring student-loan default rate.  As I've explained before, the true student-loan default rate is probably twice as high as the anemic three-year default rate DOE reports every year. In the for-profit sector, the overall default rate is at least 40 percent.  Over the long run, such a default rate is economically and politically unsustainable.

For years now, the for-profits have hid their institutional default rates by encouraging their students to sign up for economic hardship deferments so they won't be counted as defaulters. Millions of people have these deferments, but this shell game can't last forever. Eventually, the government will have to admit that a lot of people on economic-hardship deferments (probably most of them) are really defaulters who will never pay back their loans.

Putting people in IBRs is unlikely to increase the number of people who pay off their loans, but it will obscure the true student-loan default rate for several years. How? If people are automatically enrolled in IBRs, their loan payments will be lowered perhaps as low as zero for people who are unemployed or are in low-paying jobs.  These people won't be paying off their loan balances because interest will continue to accrue.  But they won't be counted as defaulters.

IBRs will take the heat off colleges and universities to keep their costs down.  Second, IBRs benefit the colleges and universities. If students pay for their college experiences based on a percentage of their income instead of the amount they borrow, they will have little incentive to shop for a college based on price. And governmental agencies will have less incentive to try to keep college costs down. Colleges and universities can perpetuate the status quo indefinitely, raising their tuition rates every year without being pressured to keep their costs down.

The for-profits will be the big winners if IBR plans become the default option for student borrowers because their student-loan default rates will drop to zero in spite of the fact that too many students who attend for-profit colleges are paying exorbitant tuition and getting substandard educational experiences.

For most students and for American Society, IBRs will be a disaster. Income-based repayments may make sense for a small percentage of student-loan debtors, but if IBRs become the default option for college-student borrowers, the consequences will be disastrous.

First of all,  as I just said, IBRs reduce students' incentive to borrow as little money as possible to attend college. In fact, many students will conclude that it makes economic sense to borrow to the max. Thus, if IBRs become popular, the total amount of money students borrow every year to attend college will  continue going up--perhaps at a faster rate than in the past.

In addition, mass adoption of IBRs will hurt the American economy. If young people are locked into making student-loan payments for 20 or 25 years, their take-home pay will be smaller and they will have less money to purchase homes, have children, and save for retirement.

But this is the most chilling fact about IBRs: They have the potential for creating a large class of people who are in essence share croppers for the federal government They will be forced to contribute a percentage of their earnings to Uncle Sam for the majority of their working lives. No one can say with certainty what the psychological impact of this arrangement will be on American college graduates, but it could reduce their faith in the American dream and lead to mass cynicism about the American political process.

And IBRs will not increase the number of people who pay off their student loans. I predict that a majority of students who select IBR plans as their student-loan repayment option will be students who pay too much to attend for-profit colleges and don't make enough money after they complete their studies to pay back their loans.  A lot of these people will be unemployed or working in low-wage jobs that entitle them to pay nothing on their loans or to pay so little that their payments won't cover accruing interest.

These poor people will see their federal loan debt grow, not shrink, over the years, even if they make all their loan payments on time.  For example, the New York Times ran a story about a veterinarian who borrowed $300,000 to attend a for-profit veterinary school outside the United States. Even though this individual found a job as a veterinarian and is making regular student-loan payments under an IBR, her current job does not pay enough to enable her to make loan payments that are large enough to cover the accruing interest on her debt. A financial analyst estimated that when this veterinarian completes her 25 year repayment period, the amount of her debt will not have been paid off.  In fact, it will have doubled--from the $300,000 she originally borrowed to more than $600,000!

In short--and I say this emphatically--wholesale adoption of income-based repayment plans is madness and its long term effect will be drive millions of people out of the middle class and into a new class of Americans--sharecroppers for the federal government.

References

Sandy Baum & Michael McPherson. Obama's Aid Proposals Could Use a Reality Check. Chronicle of Higher Education, August 26, 2013. Accessible at: http://chronicle.com/article/Obamas-Aid-Proposals-Could/141265/

David Segal. High debt and falling demand Traps New Vets. New York Times, February 23, 2013. Accessible at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/business/high-debt-and-falling-demand-trap-new-veterinarians.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0

Michael Stratford. You've Got Mail. Inside Higher Education, November 4, 2013. Accessible at: http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2013/11/04/education-dept-will-email-35-million-student-loan-borrowers-about-income-based

Thursday, September 26, 2013

President Obama's "Pay as You Earn" program to stretch out student loan repayment over 20 Years: Scarlett O'Hara would approve

 I can't think about that right now. If I do, I'll go crazy. I'll think about that tomorrow.
Scarlett O'Hara, Gone With the Wind

President Obama has shown a commendable concern about the rising cost of attending college and the rising student-loan default rate.  Unfortunately, the President's proposed solutions don't go to the root of the problem.

Yesterday's New York Times reported that the U.S. Department of Education is going to contact student-loan debtors who are in danger of default and urge them to consider a variety of repayment options--including "Pay as You Earn."

DOE's "Pay as You Earn" program allows student-loan borrowers to make loan payments based on a percentage of their income over a period of 20 years. At the end of the repayment period, the remaining balance on the loan will be forgiven.

Scarlett O'Hara would approve. As she famously said in Gone With the Wind, "I won't think about that right now. . . I'll think about that tomorrow." Pay as You Earn simply "kicks the can down the
I'll think about student loans tomorrow
road," so to speak, postponing the day when the government must face the fact that the federal student loan program is a disaster.

Education Secretary Arne Duncan thinks extended repayment programs will help prevent student-loan defaults, and he may be right. Admittedly, allowing student-loan debtors to make income-based payments over 20 years instead of fixed payments over 10 years will allow borrowers to make smaller monthly loan payments. But here are the problems with the program.

Most Pay as You Earn debtors will never pay off the principal of their loans. By design, the program allows people to make loan payments based solely on their income, and for many debtors--probably most of them--those payments will not be enough to pay down the principal of their promissory notes.  Under the plan, people who are unemployed or who have very low incomes may pay nothing on their loans for several years. Meanwhile interest will continue to accrue, making their debts grow larger.

Right now, 1.6 million student-loan debtors are participating in some kind of income-based repayment plan. I think it is safe to predict that at least a million of those people will still owe on their loans when their 20-year or 25-year repayment plan comes to an end.

In essence, Pay as You Earn debtors are indentured servants to the government. Second, requiring people  who attended college to pay a portion of their income for 20 or 25 years turns those people into 21st century indentured servants. They will be sending a portion of their income to the federal government for a majority of their working lives. Who thinks that is a good idea?

Income-Based Repayment Plans eliminate people's incentive to borrow as little money as possible to attend college.  Obviously, if students' college-loan payments are going to be based on a percentage of income regardless of the amount borrowed, then it makes sense for students to borrow as much money as possible.

Not only will the program eliminate the incentive to minimize student borrowing, it will also reduce the incentive for colleges to keep their costs down.  Who cares how much college costs, if student-loan payments are going to be based solely on an ex-student's income?

Pay as You Earn  will likely  increase red tape and bureaucracy.  Pay as You Earn and other federal income-based repayment programs will likely create a giant bureaucracy that will require the
government to adjust people's loan payments on an annual basis based on changes in income, periods of unemployment, and other factors.

The federal student loan program is already nearly incomprehensible to many student-loan debtors. I fear this program will balloon into the educational equivalent of Obamacare and Social Security and will require mountains of paperwork and bureaucratic red tape to administer.  Is this the future we want for our college graduates?

Conclusion: It's time to face the music.   It is time for the Obama administration, government policy makers and the nation's universities to face the music.  The federal student loan program is a catastrophe.  Like a drug addict, our universities have become hooked on federal student-loan money, which they rely on to survive. Thus, we cannot eliminate the program overnight; or our loan-dependent universities will go into toxic shock.

But we can gradually begin dialing this program down.  First, let's kick the for-profits out of the federal student loan program. That would shrink the cost of the program by about 25 percent and reduce the number of loan defaulters dramatically.  Of course, most for-profit colleges would be forced to close. But that's OK; the United States can get along just fine without the University of Phoenix.

Second, as I've said repeatedly, we have to allow truly distressed student-loan debtors to discharge their loans in  bankruptcy, so they can get a fresh economic start.

Third, we need to encourage more low-cost community colleges to do what some have already done--get out of the student loan program altogether. Wouldn't it be a good thing to offer low-income students low-cost options for attending college--options that would not require them to assume crushing debt just to get an education?

But so far, the higher education industry and the federal government want to prop up the status quo.
No one wants to confront the enormity of the problems that were created by the federal student loan program.  Like Scarlett O'Hara, we've decided not to think about that right now.  We'll think about that tomorrow.

References

Tamar Lewin. U.S. to Contact Borrowers With New Options for Repaying Student Loans. New York Times, September 25, 2013, p. A20.




Thursday, July 4, 2013

Emigrate! To Avoid Becoming Sharecroppers, Some Young People Will Leave the United States to Escape Student Loan Debt

Last Sunday’s Times contained an article by Felix Marquardt, a French writer who urged French young people to leave France to find better economic opportunities in other countries. France has become a “decrepit, overcentralized gerontocracy,” Marquardt argued, and “French youths should pack their bags and go find better opportunities elsewhere in the world . . .”

At this very moment, young people all over the world are emigrating from their home countries in search of a better life. Eastern Europeans, Asians, and Africans are particularly prone to emigrate. But the notion that young people in 21stcentury France should emigrate for economic reasons seems incredible. Indeed, according to Marquardt, he and two colleagues sparked a national uproar when they first proposed emigration for French young people in a newspaper article last year.


State Highway Officials Moving Sharecroppers
Photo credit: Arthur Rothstein, 1939

How about young Americans? Should they consider leaving the United States to begin new lives in other countries? Yes, the time has come for the nation’s young people to seriously explore emigration--especially if they are burdened by crushing student-loan debt.

Americans have amassed more than $1 trillion in student-loan indebtedness. Currently, more than 37 million people are burdened by student loans, including several hundred thousand elderly people. Nearly 6 million borrowers are behind on their loans or in default, and that doesn’t include people who received economic hardship deferments and are not making their loan payments.

Thanks to congressional legislation and heartless bankruptcy courts, this debt is almost impossible to discharge in bankruptcy. And thanks to a Supreme Court decision, the government can garnish loan defaulters’ Social Security checks to collect unpaid student loans.

Student-loan debt is not a big problem for people who hold good jobs and can comfortably make their loan payments. But young people are having a hard time finding good jobs. Sixteen percent of young people in the 18 to 29 age bracket are unemployed (Deruy, 2013), and that doesn’t include young people who are holding down low-wage jobs because they cannot find jobs suitable for their skills and training. About half of the nation’s college graduates hold jobs that do not require a college education and many of these graduates are working in low-paying jobs in the restaurant and service industry.

Thus, for Americans who are burdened with massive student loans and declining economic opportunities, emigration to another country is a reasonable option. Marquardt suggested that nations with growing economies such as China, Brazil, Turkey, India and Indonesia might be good places to emigrate.

Income Based Repayment Programs Turn Student-Loan Debtors Into Sharecroppers

President Obama knows that the federal student loan program is a huge problem for young Americans (and some not so young). In 2012, his administration introduced a modified IBR called a “Pay as You Earn” plan, which allows student-loan debtors to pay back their loans over a 20 year period based on a percentage of their income (U.S. Department of Education, 2012). At the end of the 20-year repayment period, any unpaid loan balance will be forgiven.

There are lots of problems with IBR initiatives--including the Obama administration’s “Pay As You Earn” plan. First of all, under current IRS regulations, loan debt that is forgiven is counted as taxable income. Thus, theoretically, at least, some people who conscientiously make their monthly loan payments for 20 years based on their income could face a huge tax bill when the repayment period comes to an end.

Second, an income-based repayment program removes a student’s incentive to avoid borrowing more money for college than is needed. Students who know their loan payments will be based on their income and not the amount they borrowed will have little reason to limit the total amount of their loans.

Some of these problems can be addressed through legislation or modified program design. For example, the IRS can amend its regulations to eliminate the tax consequences of forgiven student loans; and an IRP program can surely be designed to keep students from borrowing extravagantly.

In my mind, however, the chief evil of income-based repayment programs is that they require students to pay a portion of their income to student loan agencies for the majority of their working lives. In essence, an income-based repayment plan turns student-loan debtors into sharecroppers--people forced to fork over a portion of their income to the government for 20 years in return for the privilege of going to college.

Indeed, IBRs are identical to the economic model of the sharecropper system that prevailed in the South during the early 20th century. Sharecroppers paid a percentage of their crop to wealthy landowners in return for permission to work someone else’s land (Woodward, 1951).

Eventually, the rural sharecropper system collapsed, and hundreds of thousands of Southern sharecroppers abandoned farming and immigrated to California during the 1930s. John Steinbeck memorialized this tragedy in his great novel, The Grapes of Wrath.

Higher Education Insiders Endorse the Sharecropper Option

One might think the American higher education community could come up with a more creative proposal for addressing the student-loan crisis than income-based repayment plans. Unfortunately, a number of higher education policy groups have endorsed IBRs.

Recently, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation awarded more than $3 million to various higher education advocacy groups to make recommendations for improving our nation’s financial aid program for college students. Titled “Reimagining Aid Design and Delivery”(RADD), the project produced 16 reports from such groups as the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators (NASFAA), Education Trust, the Association of Public and Land Grant Universities, and the Institute for Higher Education Policy.

Incredibly, not one of these 16 reports recommended significant bankruptcy relief for student-loan debtors or legislation barring the garnishment of Social Security benefits from elderly people who default on their student loans. (Commendably, two of the 16 reports recommended legislation that would allow private loans to be discharged in bankruptcy.)

Even more incredibly, eight of the reports--fully half--recommended that college students be automatically enrolled in income-based repayment plans when they take out student loans. That’s right--half of the organizations responding to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation’s RADD project recommended putting all student-loan participants in a giant sharecropper program.

The specifics varied somewhat, but eight of the so-called RADD reports recommended some variation of an income-based repayment program as the default option for all student-loan debtors. All these proposals would require students who participate in the federal student loan program to make monthly payments based on a percentage of their income for a long period of time--at least 20 years.

For Some Overburdened Student Loan Debtors, Emigration Will Be Preferable to an IBP

The cost of a college education goes ever upward. The cost of attending an elite private university--tuition, feels, and living expenses--is approaching a quarter million dollars. Higher education leaders may think we can continue on this catastrophic spiral by forcing students to borrow more and more money and pay it back over an expanding period of time. In essence, they think America’s young people will consent to be sharecroppers.

I think they are wrong. Increasingly, we will see bright and talented young people forego expensive colleges altogether rather obligate themselves to 20-year repayment plans. I also think we will see some of the nation’s brightest young people immigrate to other countries where they perceive better economic opportunities than are available to them in the United States.

Marquardt described France as a country run by a “decrepit, overcentralized gerontocracy.” I see the United States as a plutocracy--a nation governed by the wealthy for the benefit of the wealthy. Exhibit A, in my opinion, is America’s prestigious universities, with their overpaid executives and obscene tuition prices. They say they offer financial aid to deserving applicants who are poor--but their main goal is to preserve the status quo for the rich.

Just as Europeans immigrated to the United States to escape plutocratic government, perpetual wars, military conscription, and lack of economic opportunities, American young people will soon be emigrating to other countries where they see brighter economic futures for themselves. And when that happens, America’s higher education community will bear a large part of the blame.

References

Burd, Stephen, et. al (2013, January29). Rebalancing Resources and Incentives in Federal Student Aid. New America Foundation. Accessible at: http://newamerica.net/publications/policy/rebalancing_resources_and_incentives_in_federal_student_aid#ACCOUNTABILITY,%20TRANSPARENCY,%20and%20REFORM


Durey, Emily (2013, May 3. April Jobs Report Paints A Bad Picture for Young Adults. ABC News. Accessible at http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/News/april-jobs-report-makes-clear-young-adults-struggle/story?id=19101235#.UdXM3DubP6c


Education Trust (2013). Doing Away With Debt: Using Existing Resources to Ensure College Affordability for Low and Middle-Income Families. Accessible at: http://www.edtrust.org/sites/edtrust.org/files/Doing_Away_With_Debt_1.pdf

Institute for College Access and Success. (2013 February). Aligning the Means and Ends: How to Improve Federal Student Aid and Increase College Access and Success. Accessible at: http://www.ticas.org/files/pub//TICAS_RADD_Executive_Summary.pdf

Marquardt, Felix (2013, June 30). The Best Hope for France’s Young? Get Out. New York Times, Sunday Review Section, p. 4.

National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators. (2013, March 14). Policy Themes in RADD Reports: A Summary Matrix. Accessible at: http://www.nasfaa.org/EntrancePDF.aspx?id=13701

National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators (2013). Reimagining Financial Aid to Improve Student Access and Outcomes. Accessible at: http://www.nasfaa.org/radd-event/

Rothstein, Arthur (1939). State Highway Officials Moving Sharecroppers, January 1939. A Photo Dossier on Sharecropping. Accessible at http://www.english.illinois.edu/maps/poets/a_f/brown/photos.htm

United States Department of Education (2012, December 21). Education Department Launches 'Pay As You Earn' Student Loan Repayment Plan. Accessible at: http://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/education-department-launches-pay-you-earn-student-loan-repayment-plan

Woodward, C. Vann. Origins of the New South: 1877-1913. Baton Rouge, LA: Louisiana State Univsersity Press, 1951.