What if the Russians Don't Want to End the Ukraine War?

 Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty, and the pig just loves it. 

 Attributed to George Bernard Shaw

 When Donald Trump was campaigning for president, he promised to end the Ukraine war within two weeks after taking office. I thought he could do it.

After all, the battle front had stabilized with Russia holding Crimea, the Donbas, and other portions of eastern Ukraine--about 12 percent of the country. If Ukraine made modest territorial concessions, surely the Russians would make peace.

Trump gave it the old college try--drawing on all his considerable negotiating skills. He leaned on Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, urging him to make territorial concessions. And he leaned on Russian President Putin,  alternating between flattery and veiled threats. The President even arranged a one-on-one meeting with Putin in Anchorage, Alaska. 

Pundits and commentators assured Americans that the Russians are paying a heavy price for their invasion--a million casualties, growing unrest in the civilian population, and an economy nearing collapse. Surely, Putin was ready to throw in the towel and stop fighting. 

Yet the carnage continues. 

Perhaps the Russians don't want the war to end. Maybe Putin is content to grind down the Ukrainian national identity, no matter how long it takes.

This is the view of an essayist on Zero Hedge, who goes by the name of Armchair Warlord (AW). AW posits this theory: "[M[aybe the killing itself is the point of all this."

AW argues that the Russians are fully capable of capturing large swaths of Ukrainian territory, but have not done so. Instead, [t]he Russians have . . . consistently forgone breaking the front and taking swaths of ground in favor of killing the largest possible number of Ukrainian soldiers on the existing front under the existing attritional combat dynamic."

AW maintains that the Ukrainian army has sustained massive casualties--1.7 million dead, wounded, captured, or missing. This number is far higher than the figures given by the mainstream, pro-Ukrainian news media.

So what is Putin's long-term objective? According to AW:

Putin wants to make Zelensky put on a suit, come groveling to the Kremlin, and sign a treaty that will see the Maidanite government surrender its arms, disgorge massive amounts of territory, and reverse every single anti-Russian policy position it ever had.

Is AW's assessment correct? I don't know. Nevertheless, the mainstream Western media has not reported accurately about what's going on in Ukraine. Contrary to what Americans have been told, the Russian economy is not nearing collapse. In fact, its GNP has grown since the war began, and the Russian ruble has gained in value against the U.S. dollar.

And Ukrainian casualties are surely higher than the Ukrainians are reporting. And let's not forget the millions of Ukrainians who are refugees from the war. 

America's progressive politicians--the Democrats--support continued American involvement in the largest military conflict since World War II. Unlike President Trump, they're not thinking about ways to stop the fighting or the consequences for our country or for Europe if the war drags on for several more years. 

It's time for our political leaders to confront reality, and these are the facts. Either the U.S. and NATO will have to make a long-term investment in propping up Ukraine, or they will be forced to accept the fact that Ukraine is slipping back into the Russian orbit. 

And this much is certain. Russia wants more than Crimea and the Donbas to stop the killing--and that is a chilling realization.

Image credit: Mauricio Lima for The New York Times