College Enrollments are Down, Tuition Prices are Up & Student-Loan Forgiveness Is on the Way: The Wounded Grizzly Syndrome

 Earlier this week, Inside Higher Education reported that college enrollments have declined for five straight semesters. In the spring 2020 semester--when the COVID epidemic began--the nation's colleges enrolled 17.1 million students. Today, 15.9 million Americans are in postsecondary classes--a decline of 1.2 million students.

Some states saw more significant declines than others, and some saw enrollments grow. California suffered an 8.1 percent decline, the most significant drop among the states.

New Hampshire's student population actually grew after the pandemic hit, mainly due to increased online enrollment. I imagine a lot of that growth can be attributed to the University of Southern New Hampshire, which aggressively markets its online programs.

Businesses operating in a market economy often slash prices when demand falls for their products. But American colleges keep raising their tuition. Boston University--a very pricey institution, will increase undergraduate tuition by 4.25 percent next year. 

BU's tuition rate will be $61,000 for the 2022-2023 academic year. And total cost, including room and board, is almost $80,000. Ouch!

Not to worry, BU tells us on its website. Each year the university awards almost a third of a billion dollars in financial assistance to undergraduates. In other words, BU assures us, most students won't have to pay the sticker price.

Indeed, colleges all over the United States are slashing tuition to lure students through the door. The National Association of College and University Business Officers said that schools are discounting tuition for first-year students by 54 percent on average.

Four out of five undergraduates will get a tuition discount in the coming academic year, NACUBO reported. So if you pay the total price to attend BU, you got suckered.

For more than a quarter of a century, colleges have raised their tuition prices annually above the cost of inflation. But the party is about to end.  

Young people are beginning to wonder if it makes sense to borrow $100,000 or more to get a liberal arts degree from an elite school if their diploma doesn't lead to a good job. 

With inflation running at a 40-year high, most colleges can no longer raise their tuition prices to cover their increased costs. BU's tuition hike of 4.25 percent is below this year's 8 percent inflation rate.

The Biden administration is signaling that it will forgive at least some student debt.  During the election campaign, Mr. Biden promised to grant $10,000 in student debt relief to students from lower-income or middle-income families. According to a recent Washington Post story, Biden will likely keep that promise.

I hate to break the news to you, President Biden. Ten thousand dollars in debt relief ain't nearly enough.  Millions of students have seen their total debt double over the years due to accrued interest. 

Offering to forgive $10,000 in debt to someone who owes $60,000 is like shooting a grizzly bear in the gut. The shot doesn't kill the bear; it just pisses him off.

Ten thousand dollars in student-debt relief won't make anyone happy.

Is 2022 the year when young people should postpone college?

 "Nobody thinks of anything as long as his luck is good," Kurt Vonnegut observed in one of his novels.  "Why should he?"

American colleges have had a remarkable run of good luck. For half a century, they've enjoyed a steady supply of students and a cornucopia of federal money flowing into their coffers. International students flocked to American universities in ever larger numbers, and they obligingly paid their tuition bills with no complaints about the cost.

Salaries for university presidents rose ever upward, and administrative staffs became more and more bloated with overpaid administrators--vice presidents and associate vice presidents, deans and associate deans, provosts, and executive vice provosts.  

Universities launched aggressive building programs: luxury dorms, ostentatious athletic facilities, world-class student recreation centers.  Wealthy alumni made fat contributions to have their names on all these gleaming edifices.

Tuition went up every year to pay for all this, but students paid their bills with federal and private student loans, and no one complained. 

Those were the gravy days!  

Then, in March 2020, the black swan arrived. COVID swept across the country, forcing universities to close their campuses. College leaders shuttered all those glittering student rec centers, emptied out the posh student dorms, and canceled college sporting events. 

Still, no worries. The coronavirus pandemic wouldn't last forever. How could it? In a year or so, the crisis would be over, and everything would be back to normal in the halcyon world of academe.

In fact, University leaders patted themselves on the back for responding to the pandemic so nimbly. In a matter of days, virtually every college in America had kicked their students off-campus and forced them to finish the spring semester by taking courses on their home computers. 

But students weren't happy about taking classes online, and they filed hundreds of lawsuits, demanding refunds for their tuition and fees. More than 300 lawsuits were filed.

And the COVID virus did not go away. In fact, many American schools are starting the 2022 spring semester with online classes--even such snooty joints as Harvard. Stanford and Georgetown.

Now student enrollments are declining--especially in the for-profit sector, the community colleges, and the non-elite private schools. For reasons that college presidents can't seem to understand, students don't want to pay $70,000 a year to attend online classes from the parents' basements.

In addition, universities across the country have been mired in scandals and litigation: sexual misconduct by varsity athletes, bribery in the admissions offices, and accusations of race discrimination.

In sum, American higher education's run of good luck has run dry.

So, if you are a young person, is 2022 a good year to postpone going to college? A good year to let things settle down?

I think it is. Unless you clearly understand how your college education will improve your life, don't take out crushing student loans to pay tuition at a college that won't let you on its campus.

Just leave your tuition check on the doorstep.

Google says you can skip college: Uh-oh!

Universities have been whistling past the graveyard for years, Ignoring the signs of rot in their industry, they just rolled along through the decades, charging obscene prices for educational experiences that were obsolete. 

Overall, college enrollment dropped ten percent over the past decade, but the universities did not reduce their costs. Instead, they hired recruiters who flew around the country trying to raid students from competing universities in other states.

In a desperate search for paying customers, colleges "rebranded" themselves with catchy slogans pasted on highway billboards--slogans like "Change Your Life. Start Hear, Life's Calling. It's Your Life."

Then they whipped up "cutting edge" college majors, upgraded their recreation facilities, and constructed "luxury" student dorms. They rolled out romantic study-abroad experiences in England, Spain, and Italy. 

To pay for this nonsense, colleges raised tuition. When sticker shock set in, they switched tactics and slashed tuition--slashed it by half for incoming freshmen. But neither tactic stabilized their revenues.
Last spring, the universities were hit by the coronavirus pandemic, which is forcing them to spend lavishly to keep their campuses safe. Many are closing their dorms in response to the crisis--another revenue loss.

Meanwhile, Americans accumulated $1.7 trillion in student debt--debt they incurred in the often vain hope that a college education (and perhaps a graduate degree) would lead to a good job.

And now, Google has launched an inexpensive professional certification program that can be completed in six months. As reported by David Leibowitz, Google "signaled to jobseekers that they would treat these certificates, which require no prior experience of undergraduate credentials, as the equivalent of four-year degrees by their hiring managers."

Or, as Google put it, "In our hiring, we will now treat these new career certificates as the equivalent of a four-year degree for related roles."

What! Can a young person actually get a good job after taking a six-month training program without having to sit through four years of bullshit to get a bachelor's degree--or six years of bullshit to get a master's degree?

Can people really earn a living wage, marry, buy a house, have children, and save for retirement without taking a course in transnational sexuality? Without taking out $50,000 in student loans that can never be paid back? Without having a professor teach them that Mom and Pop, by staying in a traditional marriage, were participating in the structured exploitation of women and people of color?

Can that be true?

By God, we better hope it's true because the lazy, dysfunctional, anti-intellectual, toxic, and often racist cocktail that we call American higher education ain't working for us.

And I use the word "ain't" advisedly, because Rutgers University says that mastery of standard English grammar is not absolutely necessary to communicate as an educated person. 

"Learning. Leading," at the University of Houston. Yuh think?